The ‘January Effect‘ is a relatively well known stock market anomaly, whereby equities have historically performed better in January than in any other month of the year. Most explanations for the January effect focus on how tax-conscious investors sell stocks…
Yearly Archives: 2007
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Have a go at the Fed’s online monetary policy game (click here), where you take the role of Chairman Bernanke in setting rates in the face of a number of economic scenarios. I’ve just been reappointed as Fed Chairman thanks…
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The Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz – the answers and the winners
- Topics
- News
Posted December 24th, 2007
Thank you for all your entries. The winner is Nick Tudball of BNP Paribas, with 19 out of 20. There was a tie for second and third, with James Mitchell of UBS and Sara Swinden (who I suspect sits near…
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The closing date for entries is tomorrow – Friday 21st December – at 5 pm. Winners will be announced next week sometime, depending on how quickly we can get the entries marked – think of us as you tuck in…
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‘Tis the season to be jolly, and is the time of year when I have the delights of seeing my children in the traditional nativity play. The story is familiar to all of us. At this time of year our…
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De-coupling – China and India to come to the rescue of the global economy? Nope
- Topics
- News
Posted December 18th, 2007
The people I speak to about the growing probability of a US consumer recession seem to have a widely held hope that the Asian and emerging market economies have matured enough to take up the slack. This is the so-called…
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To take your mind off the misery in the following markets – banking, commercial property, risky credit, emerging markets, housing – we invite you to take part in our Christmas Quiz. There are 20 questions in total, and the closing…
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I enjoyed this letter which was printed in the Times last Saturday. Sir, The selling and buying of Northern Rock mortgages between banks reminds me of a wartime story. It involved the busy exchange of corned-beef between black-marketeers. One purchaser…
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In this comment early last month, I posed the question as to whether the UK housing market was on the brink. Well, today’s data leads me to the conclusion that it has gone over the edge and we are entering…
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The knock on effect of falling house prices – crystal ball breaking
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- News
Posted November 28th, 2007
US house prices fell by 5.5% in the year to the end of September, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Composite-10 Index (see opposite chart). The pace of decline is quickening – prices fell by the most in at least 20…
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