I joined 20 million other people in Sao Paulo last week on my first trip to Brazil. I made a short video of a few thoughts on the economy and the challenges faced by emerging market economies now deemed to…
Yearly Archives: 2012
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Brazil – a video from Sao Paulo. Hot money, an aggressive central bank and 140 kms of traffic jams.
- Topics
- economic factors
Posted May 14th, 2012
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From The Politics Of Economics To The Politics Of Society
- Topics
- economic factors, Europe
Posted May 11th, 2012
As we had a three day weekend last week I used the opportunity of an extra day off to catch up on some reading. One of the pieces I read struck me as particularly pertinent given the elections on the…
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RBA slashes interest rates – the lucky country is getting nailed
- Topics
- government bonds, interest rates
Posted May 1st, 2012
Today the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by cutting official interest rates by 0.5% to 3.75%. Weaker inflation data out last week and a deluge of soft economic data has got the RBA rattled. We’ve discussed bubbles down…
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The “safety race”: the systemic implications of the bank asset grab
- Topics
- Bank of England, banking, credit risk, default, Uncategorized
Posted April 26th, 2012
Anyone monitoring the risks in the global financial system knows that those of us who lend to banks are increasingly asking for some kind of security in order to do so. Issuance volumes for covered bonds have increased and more…
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Sterling’s strength is hard to explain – but it poses big risks for the UK economy in 2012. Equivalent to a 1.8% rate hike?
- Topics
- quantitative easing, UK
Posted April 23rd, 2012
So some panic buying of petrol in March saw UK retail sales grow 1.8% from February and almost certainly means that the first quarter of 2012 will see positive GDP growth. As the final quarter of 2011 was negative for…
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The next three weeks will mark uncertain political times in the eurozone. We could see the election of Francois Hollande as the next French president, the first multi-party coalition in Greece as well as some serious debates about early general…
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What should Mervyn do with his QE gilts? Free finance.
- Topics
- Bank of England, gilts
Posted April 20th, 2012
Jim recently discussed the merits of officially cancelling the gilts bought back through QE, so I thought I would discuss another option that maintains the status quo through the Bank of England (BoE) simply rolling over the QE gilts into…
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Deutsche Bank 2012 Default Study – Default bark far worse than the bite?
- Topics
- corporate bonds
Posted April 19th, 2012
This week saw Deutsche Bank publish their 2012 Default Study, aptly subtitled ‘5yrs of crisis – The default bark far worse than the bite..’ The annual piece is particularly interesting, especially because the market now has five years of data…
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If the government simply cancelled the £300 bn+ of QE gilts held by the BoE, who would be unhappy?
- Topics
- AAA rated, Bank of England
Posted April 11th, 2012
The UK sits unhappily at the very boundary of what debt burden is acceptable for a AAA rated economy. If growth continues to disappoint, or if more austerity becomes socially impossible, the UK will be downgraded – and neither of…
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We recently published an in-depth note on the high yield market which you can access here. In it we consider some of the issues facing investors in the era of negative real interest rates and financial repression and how high…
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