The ECB finally realised it had no choice and fired its bazooka in December. The impact has been huge. Two year Italian government bond yields have more than halved from the high of 7.5% seen at the end of November….
Monthly Archives: January 2012
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Last week conventional gilts of all maturities briefly traded – but failed to close – below the 3% level. The continuation of the gilt bull market has now reached an important psychological level, with the ascendant bulls seeing a 3%…
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The hot money has flown south to Australia for the winter, but will it fly back in the summer?
- Topics
- AAA rated, interest rates
Posted January 17th, 2012
On Friday we had a Dumb and Dumber moment in the office when a colleague for a few seconds thought that Australia had lost its AAA rating. The error was quickly realised (it was Austria that was downgraded) and Australia…
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Für einen deutlich schwächeren Euro müssten die Renditen auf deutsche Staatsanleihen sehr weit in negatives Terrain fallen. Das könnte leicht passieren.
- Topics
- Europe, government bonds
Posted January 16th, 2012
This post was originally published on 11.01.12 in English and has been translated for our German readers. 2011 hat der Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar 3,2% verloren. Nach allem, was 2011 in Europa passiert ist, sind viele überrascht, dass der Euro…
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German government bond yields may need to get very negative for the euro to weaken much further. And it could easily happen
- Topics
- Europe, government bonds
Posted January 11th, 2012
In 2011 the euro underperformed the US dollar by 3.2%. Given everything that’s occurred in Europe, many people have been surprised that the euro has not been weaker, and numerous commentators continue to call for a much weaker euro in…
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France has started wobbling again recently. France 10 year government bond yield spreads over Germany have blown out from just under 100 basis points at the beginning of December to 150 basis points today, although this is still a bit…
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The US: living in a lower population growth environment
- Topics
- unemployment, US
Posted January 6th, 2012
The 2000s were the slowest decade of population growth in the US since the Great Depression. The first set of state population counts for 2011 revealed that there has been no change to this trend. The US experienced the lowest…
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Happy Hogmanay – would an independent Scotland still be rated AAA? And might the rest of the UK get downgraded too?
- Topics
- credit rating, UK
Posted January 4th, 2012
Happy Hogmanay – an independent Scotland looks AAA on the back of an envelope (as long as it gets all of the oil and none of the banks!), but would probably get rated lower. UK to get downgraded on uncertainty?…
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