Many question how the heavily indebted European nations will get out of the mess they are in. Absent a break-up of the single currency unit, most economists point to a significant reduction in unit labour costs (through a reduction in…
Recent posts from Anthony Doyle
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The hot money has flown south to Australia for the winter, but will it fly back in the summer?
- Topics
- AAA rated, interest rates
Posted January 17th, 2012
On Friday we had a Dumb and Dumber moment in the office when a colleague for a few seconds thought that Australia had lost its AAA rating. The error was quickly realised (it was Austria that was downgraded) and Australia…
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A review of fixed interest asset class returns in 2011
- Topics
- corporate bonds, gilts
Posted December 14th, 2011
The decorations are up, the presents are under the tree, and I’m starting to think of New Year resolutions. Yes 2012 is almost upon us. With that in mind, I thought it might be interesting to have a quick look…
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Inflation remains a hot topic here in the UK. The latest numbers out last week showed CPI had risen by 5% over the year. This is only 3% above the Bank of England’s target rate. If inflation remains at this…
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Why you shouldn’t just read the headlines on US unemployment
- Topics
- unemployment, US
Posted November 3rd, 2011
Everyone is familiar with the deterioration in US labour market. Figures out today show that the unemployment rate has more than doubled to 9.1% from its pre-crisis low of 4.4% in 2007. The question is how accurately does the unemployment…
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What is the increase in US money supply telling us?
- Topics
- global economy, US
Posted October 25th, 2011
Bernanke is clear about why the Fed has embarked on “Operation Twist” – the Federal Reserve has both greatly increased its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities and broadened its portfolio to include agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Its goal…
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The outlook for fixed income after the summer of discontent
- Topics
- economic factors
Posted September 14th, 2011
What a summer we have had in bond markets! The US and French bank downgrade, limited policy flexibility, aftermath of the Japan earthquake, rising commodity prices and sovereign and banking concerns already had markets on edge. A further deterioration in…
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Journalists and financial commentators have been kept very busy this year. Market participants and investors have clamoured for information on debt ceilings, credit ratings, and restructurings. 2011 looks like a year that will go down in history as one of…
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US downgrade and ECB bond buying: conference call replay details
- Topics
- AAA rated, credit rating, US
Posted August 9th, 2011
Yesterday Jim did a conference call covering both the S&P downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and the ECB’s massive buying of Spanish and Italian government bonds. You can listen to a recording of the call and view the…
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The US is headed for recession – if 63 years of economic data are any guide to the future
- Topics
- debt, GDP, interest rates, recession, unemployment, US
Posted August 2nd, 2011
Think the US is out of the woods now that congress has come to an agreement on the debt ceiling? Not according to this chart from Rich Yamarone, an economist at Bloomberg. It’s called the “2 percent rule”. When US…
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