Over the last few weeks we have witnessed a meaningful bounce in inflation breakevens in the UK, Europe and the US. When breakevens are rising, it is a signal that the fixed income market is anticipating higher inflation than has…
Recent posts from Ben Lord
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Markets start to think about inflation again
- Topics
- Bank of England, inflation
Posted March 19th, 2012
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I saw a very interesting article in this weekend’s Financial Times discussing the London property market. Ed Hammond cited data showing that Greek and Italian citizens have accounted for more than 10% of London property purchases so far in 2011….
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Recent selling of risk assets into traditional haven government bonds has taken their yields back near their all time lows. Will people continue to buy them in a risk off trade? We are almost certainly nearer the beginning than the…
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Two months ago I questioned whether the decoupling between credit spreads and economic fundamentals could continue for much longer. I felt at the time that at some stage the weakening economic data would start to drag credit spreads wider, at…
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Don’t get me wrong, I am not sounding the death knell of the post QE (1) credit rally. But a couple of pretty important and recent developments have got me asking: should I be chipping away at some of the…
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This week RPI broke through 5% and CPI broke through 4%. The media are almost universally calling for rate hikes, politicians are starting to voice their opinions loudly, and many investors are worried. If the market reacts to higher inflation…
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I enjoyed this article from the Evening Standard on Thursday. Of particular interest, Anthony Hilton makes the point: “So badly have the banks played their hand in showing absolutely no contrition for their mistakes, nor displaying any willingness to share…
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A Bond Vigilante visits the Bank of International Settlements – Video update
- Topics
- banking, global economy
Posted June 2nd, 2010
Anyone who has had a flight delayed or cancelled as a result of the volcano in Iceland will know how frustrating it can be. For someone in that position, there isn’t much that can be done about it. Ben Lord,…
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Mervyn King introduced himself to George Osborne last night by writing him a letter, not to wish him luck in his new and frankly unenviable role, nor to advise him on just how much austerity is needed on 22nd June…
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UK money supply shrinks by most ever – QuitE a Dilemma
- Topics
- quantitative easing, UK
Posted January 21st, 2010
Today we have seen the preliminary release of M4 money supply (so-called ‘ broad money’), and it could potentially be a very important piece of economic data. December saw a 1.1% drop in the money supply, the largest monthly fall…
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