I’ve always had a problem with the standard narrative that you hear about emerging markets (EM). Investors are constantly hearing, or telling, stories about how you must have exposure to EM because these countries have much stronger growth rates and…
Recent posts from Mike Riddell
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♥Mexico♥ – a rare ‘EM’ country that we love
- Topics
- currency, economic factors
Posted February 14th, 2012
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The ECB finally realised it had no choice and fired its bazooka in December. The impact has been huge. Two year Italian government bond yields have more than halved from the high of 7.5% seen at the end of November….
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Für einen deutlich schwächeren Euro müssten die Renditen auf deutsche Staatsanleihen sehr weit in negatives Terrain fallen. Das könnte leicht passieren.
- Topics
- Europe, government bonds
Posted January 16th, 2012
This post was originally published on 11.01.12 in English and has been translated for our German readers. 2011 hat der Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar 3,2% verloren. Nach allem, was 2011 in Europa passiert ist, sind viele überrascht, dass der Euro…
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German government bond yields may need to get very negative for the euro to weaken much further. And it could easily happen
- Topics
- Europe, government bonds
Posted January 11th, 2012
In 2011 the euro underperformed the US dollar by 3.2%. Given everything that’s occurred in Europe, many people have been surprised that the euro has not been weaker, and numerous commentators continue to call for a much weaker euro in…
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France has started wobbling again recently. France 10 year government bond yield spreads over Germany have blown out from just under 100 basis points at the beginning of December to 150 basis points today, although this is still a bit…
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Explaining low government bond yields (follow up) – maybe it’s not just about Europe, it’s about China too
- Topics
- global economy
Posted December 21st, 2011
Yesterday I wrote a comment about how US Treasuries seemed to have decoupled from US economic data, and decided that it must be all about Europe (see here). That could have been a slightly hasty conclusion. Having spent the last…
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A chart that may make you nervous if you’re long of government bonds
- Topics
- AAA rated, government bonds
Posted December 20th, 2011
Government bond investing used to be about analysing and assessing economic data. Judging by the last few months, not any more. At the beginning of June, I argued here that US economic data was a horror show and was falling…
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I went to Asia a couple of weeks ago to try to get away from the Eurozone and maintain some semblance of sanity, and to try to figure out what’s going on in the continent that has driven global economic…
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People are still wondering what caused the big surge in Italian and Spanish government bond yields back in July that lurched the Eurozone debt crisis into the current very serious phase (eg see here). I suspect that, if anything, the…
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PMI data indicates that Eurozone has sunk into recession. Now what?
- Topics
- Eurozone
Posted November 4th, 2011
At the beginning of this year our team sat down and had a collective brain dump about long term big picture themes. To be honest we do this on an intra day basis anyway, but for some reason at…
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