Early this morning it appears that at last Greece and the European authorities are at the final stages of launching a bond swap with the private sector – known as the private sector involvement (PSI) procedure – which will aim…
Category Archives: Eurozone
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The ECB finally realised it had no choice and fired its bazooka in December. The impact has been huge. Two year Italian government bond yields have more than halved from the high of 7.5% seen at the end of November….
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France has started wobbling again recently. France 10 year government bond yield spreads over Germany have blown out from just under 100 basis points at the beginning of December to 150 basis points today, although this is still a bit…
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European High Yield vs. Eurozone Tail Risk High Yield
- Topics
- Eurozone, high yield
Posted December 22nd, 2011
As Eurozone concerns have dominated risk appetite within the market this year, a key question that faces many market participants is how to capture some of the attractive risk premiums that this weakness creates without exposing themselves unduly to the…
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I went to Asia a couple of weeks ago to try to get away from the Eurozone and maintain some semblance of sanity, and to try to figure out what’s going on in the continent that has driven global economic…
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People are still wondering what caused the big surge in Italian and Spanish government bond yields back in July that lurched the Eurozone debt crisis into the current very serious phase (eg see here). I suspect that, if anything, the…
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There’s a very interesting article in the British Airways in-flight magazine this month by Tim Harford, also known as the Undercover Economist in his FT column. In it, he points out that Benford’s Law showed that Greece’s reported macroeconomic statistics…
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PMI data indicates that Eurozone has sunk into recession. Now what?
- Topics
- Eurozone
Posted November 4th, 2011
At the beginning of this year our team sat down and had a collective brain dump about long term big picture themes. To be honest we do this on an intra day basis anyway, but for some reason at…
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If sovereign CDS is no longer an effective hedge then who’s in trouble?
- Topics
- CDs, European banks, Eurozone
Posted October 28th, 2011
Current plans are for Greek restructuring to be ‘voluntary’, which means that it would fail to trigger CDS (see here). CDS is supposed to be the cost of insuring against default. If Greek restructuring fails to trigger CDS, then CDS…
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Travelling through Switzerland I can’t help but think that politicians both here and in the UK have a lot to thank their predecessors/electorates for. The relative safe-haven status enjoyed by both economies reflects, at least in part, the arm’s length…
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