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	<title>Comments for Bond Vigilantes</title>
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	<description>M &#38; G</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 22 Feb 2012 11:18:33 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Comment on Paying the locusts &#8211; what the PSI means for Greek bond investors by oldmoore</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/21/paying-the-locusts-what-the-psi-means-for-greek-bond-investors/#comment-24152</link>
		<dc:creator>oldmoore</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Feb 2012 11:18:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4934#comment-24152</guid>
		<description>Let&#039;s get real.
Greece is bust (and so are several other states) and there is a cat&#039;s chance in hell that the Greeks will stick to/achieve the 2020 target. Then what?

This manic idea that going for growth will &#039;sort the problem&#039; has to be ditched once and for all. All such a policy will do is shift the cost onto the next generation/s. Why should our kids pay for the reckless activities of incompetant politicians and bankers over the past 50 years?

Time to start over and do it properly next time.     </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s get real.<br />
Greece is bust (and so are several other states) and there is a cat&#8217;s chance in hell that the Greeks will stick to/achieve the 2020 target. Then what?</p>
<p>This manic idea that going for growth will &#8216;sort the problem&#8217; has to be ditched once and for all. All such a policy will do is shift the cost onto the next generation/s. Why should our kids pay for the reckless activities of incompetant politicians and bankers over the past 50 years?</p>
<p>Time to start over and do it properly next time.     </p>
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		<title>Comment on Paying the locusts &#8211; what the PSI means for Greek bond investors by Yohay</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/21/paying-the-locusts-what-the-psi-means-for-greek-bond-investors/#comment-24128</link>
		<dc:creator>Yohay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Feb 2012 08:30:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4934#comment-24128</guid>
		<description>I certainly agree that this is unfair. I believe that the loss will eventually be 100% and that Greece will declare bankruptcy. This agreement seems like another move to pass the time until the next LTRO. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I certainly agree that this is unfair. I believe that the loss will eventually be 100% and that Greece will declare bankruptcy. This agreement seems like another move to pass the time until the next LTRO. </p>
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		<title>Comment on Paying the locusts &#8211; what the PSI means for Greek bond investors by Central Bank News</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/21/paying-the-locusts-what-the-psi-means-for-greek-bond-investors/#comment-24116</link>
		<dc:creator>Central Bank News</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:22:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4934#comment-24116</guid>
		<description>I agree that it sets a dangerous precedent, but bond investors are big boys - they should know what they&#039;re getting themselves into. When you buy bonds or lend money, return of capital is critical, and these people just misjudged the risks. Anyway, it&#039;s probably better than outright repudiation.

I think one of the larger issues is how we get from crisis measures to longer-term growth and sustainability initiatives, because all this austerity and firewalls etc is just meant to keep the whole thing patched up enough to stop it from completely falling apart, and with 30-year bonds, a little bit of long term thinking may be well placed! </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree that it sets a dangerous precedent, but bond investors are big boys &#8211; they should know what they&#8217;re getting themselves into. When you buy bonds or lend money, return of capital is critical, and these people just misjudged the risks. Anyway, it&#8217;s probably better than outright repudiation.</p>
<p>I think one of the larger issues is how we get from crisis measures to longer-term growth and sustainability initiatives, because all this austerity and firewalls etc is just meant to keep the whole thing patched up enough to stop it from completely falling apart, and with 30-year bonds, a little bit of long term thinking may be well placed! </p>
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		<title>Comment on Paying the locusts &#8211; what the PSI means for Greek bond investors by cfwade</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/21/paying-the-locusts-what-the-psi-means-for-greek-bond-investors/#comment-24046</link>
		<dc:creator>cfwade</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Feb 2012 19:14:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4934#comment-24046</guid>
		<description>Just like after every other sovereign crises!  Seems to me that investors ALWAYS have short memories!   </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just like after every other sovereign crises!  Seems to me that investors ALWAYS have short memories!   </p>
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		<title>Comment on Paying the locusts &#8211; what the PSI means for Greek bond investors by The Slog</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/21/paying-the-locusts-what-the-psi-means-for-greek-bond-investors/#comment-24026</link>
		<dc:creator>The Slog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Feb 2012 13:39:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4934#comment-24026</guid>
		<description>I sense a bit of Draghi over-confidence here.
Maybe the ratings agencies will give him a nasty shock...
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/greek-bailout-its-a-seagoing-sieve-says-slogs-us-source/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I sense a bit of Draghi over-confidence here.<br />
Maybe the ratings agencies will give him a nasty shock&#8230;<br />
<a href="http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/greek-bailout-its-a-seagoing-sieve-says-slogs-us-source/" rel="nofollow">http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/greek-bailout-its-a-seagoing-sieve-says-slogs-us-source/</a></p>
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		<title>Comment on Paying the locusts &#8211; what the PSI means for Greek bond investors by Guy Foster</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/21/paying-the-locusts-what-the-psi-means-for-greek-bond-investors/#comment-24012</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy Foster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Feb 2012 11:17:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4934#comment-24012</guid>
		<description>Whilst undoubtedly the PSI does involve rewarding sellers at the expense of investors the opportunity cost is harder to fathom. Somebody must bear the cost: Should it be Europe&#039;s taxpayers at large or should it be the bond bond invetors who incorrectly calculated the reward they were receiving for lending to Greece. 

OK, so the argument may be simplistic considering the pressure banks are under to hold domestic governmment debt but the eurozone is one of the few markets where they have a genuine choice about which liquid bonds they populate their balance sheet with. 

Furthermore: 
The bond swap now places a great burden from an &quot;ambitious&quot; deal on to the public sector. 
The public sector is wearing a reduction in interest on bilateral loans.
Dramatic impact to European banks may ultimately fall on the public sector so taxpayers aren&#039;t that relaxed about that element either!

Losses have been suffered by both sectors. It&#039;s not perfect but I don&#039;t feel the private sector has got a bum deal here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Whilst undoubtedly the PSI does involve rewarding sellers at the expense of investors the opportunity cost is harder to fathom. Somebody must bear the cost: Should it be Europe&#8217;s taxpayers at large or should it be the bond bond invetors who incorrectly calculated the reward they were receiving for lending to Greece. </p>
<p>OK, so the argument may be simplistic considering the pressure banks are under to hold domestic governmment debt but the eurozone is one of the few markets where they have a genuine choice about which liquid bonds they populate their balance sheet with. </p>
<p>Furthermore:<br />
The bond swap now places a great burden from an &#8220;ambitious&#8221; deal on to the public sector.<br />
The public sector is wearing a reduction in interest on bilateral loans.<br />
Dramatic impact to European banks may ultimately fall on the public sector so taxpayers aren&#8217;t that relaxed about that element either!</p>
<p>Losses have been suffered by both sectors. It&#8217;s not perfect but I don&#8217;t feel the private sector has got a bum deal here.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Competitiveness confusion reigns supreme by Robert J</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/08/competitiveness-confusion-reigns-supreme/#comment-23514</link>
		<dc:creator>Robert J</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Feb 2012 13:23:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4824#comment-23514</guid>
		<description>So one of the arguments for having a positive inflation target is that inflation greases the labour market by keeping real wages in check - exploiting worker money illusion.

But if, on the other hand, a reduction in real wages occurs in a recession, then this may prolong the downturn due to the negative influence upon consumption.

Interesting trade-off between the goal of a competitive labour market in the long-term and the goal of supporting consumption in the short-term.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So one of the arguments for having a positive inflation target is that inflation greases the labour market by keeping real wages in check &#8211; exploiting worker money illusion.</p>
<p>But if, on the other hand, a reduction in real wages occurs in a recession, then this may prolong the downturn due to the negative influence upon consumption.</p>
<p>Interesting trade-off between the goal of a competitive labour market in the long-term and the goal of supporting consumption in the short-term.</p>
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		<title>Comment on 4 Housing Markets, One Country by longodds</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/16/4-housing-markets-one-country/#comment-23510</link>
		<dc:creator>longodds</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:14:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4914#comment-23510</guid>
		<description>You describe the Scottish retail property market as &quot; supine&quot;.  The facts are that for more than a decade house prices in Scotland have been growing at well above their  historical long term  trend and that in the 5 years to the beginning of 2007 , when house prices everywhere started to slow down, prices in the Highlands and Islands area rose by more than 100%.

Your viewpoint nicely illustrates why Alex Salmond&#039;s call for independence is beginning  to appeal to a wider audience in Scotland. You, from what I would guess is a  South of the border perspective look at the chart and see &quot; a supine&quot; Scottish market in other words less opportunity for using a house as a financial asset from which you hope to make a large capital profit. North of the border a significant number of people  look at the same chart  and  wonder how young people will ever be able to afford their own home (just to live in not as a profit centre) and look at the other lines on the chart and think &quot; more fool them&quot;  The Conservative party have never understyood that difference in outlook and never will so as both Salmond and Cameron have recently alluded to there will, for the foreseeable future , be more pandas than Conservative MPs in Scotland.

Those who are greedy and selfish by nature almost always look at relative performance figures and see faults with the &quot;poorest performer&quot;.  The reality generally is that the highest performers have been in the biggest bubble and have the furthest to fall and the most pain to suffer once reversion to the mean, or more more basically common sense prevails. My guess is that there is some 20 years or so of pain to come as the unwinding continues.  As there were people in Scotland who bought towards the end of the bubble we, with our supine property market, will suffer but not to the same extent as those who regard above trend growth and capital values doubling in 5 years as not good enough - they will have much more to worry about.

Your jibe about Scottish banks blowing up the UK banking system is little more than ill informed mud slinging. No doubt you remember that Barclays were in a head to head with RBS to buy ABN Amro and were only saved from that fate by being outbid by the ego of Fred. He unfortunately visibly self inflated as his largely London based advsers and the London based media goaded him onwards with headlines such as &quot;London is being pitted against Edinburgh&quot; and profiles such as 
&quot; The Biggest Hitters in British Banking&quot; which of course listed him and his &quot;attributes&quot;.

For the record I used the same upside down ( some  would say Scottish) viewpoint about how one should use relative performance figures to help identify that RBS shares were much too high and sold somewhere North of 550p and I was short of the housing market as early as 2007.  I am a house owner lucky enough to now have substantial equty in my now mortgage free property but I hope house prices continue their decline because I have no wish to prosper any further at the expense of the younger generation. And no I have never voted for the Scottish National Party - yet.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You describe the Scottish retail property market as &#8221; supine&#8221;.  The facts are that for more than a decade house prices in Scotland have been growing at well above their  historical long term  trend and that in the 5 years to the beginning of 2007 , when house prices everywhere started to slow down, prices in the Highlands and Islands area rose by more than 100%.</p>
<p>Your viewpoint nicely illustrates why Alex Salmond&#8217;s call for independence is beginning  to appeal to a wider audience in Scotland. You, from what I would guess is a  South of the border perspective look at the chart and see &#8221; a supine&#8221; Scottish market in other words less opportunity for using a house as a financial asset from which you hope to make a large capital profit. North of the border a significant number of people  look at the same chart  and  wonder how young people will ever be able to afford their own home (just to live in not as a profit centre) and look at the other lines on the chart and think &#8221; more fool them&#8221;  The Conservative party have never understyood that difference in outlook and never will so as both Salmond and Cameron have recently alluded to there will, for the foreseeable future , be more pandas than Conservative MPs in Scotland.</p>
<p>Those who are greedy and selfish by nature almost always look at relative performance figures and see faults with the &#8220;poorest performer&#8221;.  The reality generally is that the highest performers have been in the biggest bubble and have the furthest to fall and the most pain to suffer once reversion to the mean, or more more basically common sense prevails. My guess is that there is some 20 years or so of pain to come as the unwinding continues.  As there were people in Scotland who bought towards the end of the bubble we, with our supine property market, will suffer but not to the same extent as those who regard above trend growth and capital values doubling in 5 years as not good enough &#8211; they will have much more to worry about.</p>
<p>Your jibe about Scottish banks blowing up the UK banking system is little more than ill informed mud slinging. No doubt you remember that Barclays were in a head to head with RBS to buy ABN Amro and were only saved from that fate by being outbid by the ego of Fred. He unfortunately visibly self inflated as his largely London based advsers and the London based media goaded him onwards with headlines such as &#8220;London is being pitted against Edinburgh&#8221; and profiles such as<br />
&#8221; The Biggest Hitters in British Banking&#8221; which of course listed him and his &#8220;attributes&#8221;.</p>
<p>For the record I used the same upside down ( some  would say Scottish) viewpoint about how one should use relative performance figures to help identify that RBS shares were much too high and sold somewhere North of 550p and I was short of the housing market as early as 2007.  I am a house owner lucky enough to now have substantial equty in my now mortgage free property but I hope house prices continue their decline because I have no wish to prosper any further at the expense of the younger generation. And no I have never voted for the Scottish National Party &#8211; yet.</p>
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		<title>Comment on 4 Housing Markets, One Country by John McDermott</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/16/4-housing-markets-one-country/#comment-23440</link>
		<dc:creator>John McDermott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Feb 2012 19:17:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4914#comment-23440</guid>
		<description>Surely, the larger trend is global urbanisation?  Over half the world&#039;s population now live in urban areas.  In 2005, megacities accounted for 9% of the global population (certainly more by now).
http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/megacities-by-the-numbers
These cities are more productive and more innovative that smaller populations, and will continue to attract populations.
Although London is not in the list quoted above, I suspect this is a geo-political artifact, as the greater travel-to-work area would seem to put in the same category as the others listed.
I suspect that tax or public policy can&#039;t buck the trend.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Surely, the larger trend is global urbanisation?  Over half the world&#8217;s population now live in urban areas.  In 2005, megacities accounted for 9% of the global population (certainly more by now).<br />
<a href="http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/megacities-by-the-numbers" rel="nofollow">http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/megacities-by-the-numbers</a><br />
These cities are more productive and more innovative that smaller populations, and will continue to attract populations.<br />
Although London is not in the list quoted above, I suspect this is a geo-political artifact, as the greater travel-to-work area would seem to put in the same category as the others listed.<br />
I suspect that tax or public policy can&#8217;t buck the trend.</p>
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		<title>Comment on 4 Housing Markets, One Country by Rufus Gilday</title>
		<link>http://www.bondvigilantes.com/2012/02/16/4-housing-markets-one-country/#comment-23412</link>
		<dc:creator>Rufus Gilday</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Feb 2012 12:43:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bondvigilantes.com/?p=4914#comment-23412</guid>
		<description>That last sentence about the Banks of Scotland, Ulster and London is the  stuff of political nightmares. 
Missing in the emerging debate on Scotland is how a small &quot;country&quot;with a supine property market, managed to develop two banks which blew up the UK banking system. The canny Mr Salmond seems to think they can keep the oil and we can keep the banks, We should send him homewards ta think again</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That last sentence about the Banks of Scotland, Ulster and London is the  stuff of political nightmares. <br />
Missing in the emerging debate on Scotland is how a small &#8220;country&#8221;with a supine property market, managed to develop two banks which blew up the UK banking system. The canny Mr Salmond seems to think they can keep the oil and we can keep the banks, We should send him homewards ta think again</p>
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