The UK sits unhappily at the very boundary of what debt burden is acceptable for a AAA rated economy. If growth continues to disappoint, or if more austerity becomes socially impossible, the UK will be downgraded – and neither of…
Tag Archives: austerity
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If the government simply cancelled the £300 bn+ of QE gilts held by the BoE, who would be unhappy?
- Topics
- AAA rated, Bank of England
Posted April 11th, 2012
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1. The price charged by central banks for saving the world is seniority. The ECB did not take haircuts on the Greek debt it had bought as part of its SMP bond buying programme. Did you spot the clause in…
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Back in March we wrote about Iceland’s response to the banking crisis, and how it differed to other countries that stepped in to support their banking systems. This week, Paul Krugman commented about Iceland’s exit from its IMF programme. The…
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Recent selling of risk assets into traditional haven government bonds has taken their yields back near their all time lows. Will people continue to buy them in a risk off trade? We are almost certainly nearer the beginning than the…
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The IMF is schizophrenic on Osborne’s UK budget. And a Keynesian book competition.
- Topics
- IMF, quantitative easing, UK
Posted November 8th, 2010
In September, the International Monetary Fund “threw its weight” behind the UK government’s austerity programme, saying that it “supports a balanced recovery”. One month later, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), it seems a lot less sure of itself. In…
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We’ve written recently about the bond world going ‘topsy turvy’, in that a consequence of QE may be that the higher inflation economies could end up with having lower yielding sovereign bond yields than the lower inflation economies. Another way…
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Yesterday’s emergency Budget will lead to a UK fiscal contraction bigger than any we have seen in our lifetimes. In this 8 minute video, I look at the implications for the UK bond markets, inflation, and the economy. Watch the…
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Now that the new UK government is bedding in and getting ready to unleash austerity upon us, I thought I’d quickly look back at the last Labour government and tell you something that you won’t want to hear: the last…
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