Central banking has evolved substantially in recent decades. Part of this evolution has involved a move towards greater transparency around a central bank’s forecasts and operations. The reason for this shift is because it is believed by many economists that…
Tag Archives: Ben Bernanke
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Central banks’ poor forecasting records and why the Fed may hike rates before late 2014
- Topics
- interest rates, US
Posted March 23rd, 2012
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The US is headed for recession – if 63 years of economic data are any guide to the future
- Topics
- debt, GDP, interest rates, recession, unemployment, US
Posted August 2nd, 2011
Think the US is out of the woods now that congress has come to an agreement on the debt ceiling? Not according to this chart from Rich Yamarone, an economist at Bloomberg. It’s called the “2 percent rule”. When US…
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Well sort of. It hasn’t got a lot of attention in the bond markets, but this week both Jon Hilsenrath in the WSJ, and subsequently Paul Krugman in the NYT have revisited Ben Bernanke’s paper Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case…
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Stefan and I have just got back from a trip to visit our counterparties in New York. The mood is almost universally gloomy with – predictably – housing and gas prices the dominant themes. The TV news channels run an…
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US housing downturn worst since Great Depression – and getting worse
- Topics
- property market, US
Posted February 28th, 2008
Investors are almost becoming blasé to dire US housing market data releases, but the reality is that things are getting worse and worse. The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller figures that came out on Tuesday showed that the US housing market downturn is…
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Goodhart’s law states that once you start targeting a certain statistic in the course of economic policy, the relationship between that statistic and the economy breaks down. Charles Goodhart was a Bank of England advisor, and the law gained publicity…
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