It was announced this morning that the UK economy grew just +0.5% in 2011, a downward revision from +0.7% previously announced. As the chart below from Citi illustrates, the UK economy has stalled. UK real GDP is 4.1% below its…
Tag Archives: economic growth
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UK economic recovery worse than Great Depression, and no sign of improving
- Topics
- economic factors, UK
Posted March 28th, 2012
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Happy Hogmanay – would an independent Scotland still be rated AAA? And might the rest of the UK get downgraded too?
- Topics
- credit rating, UK
Posted January 4th, 2012
Happy Hogmanay – an independent Scotland looks AAA on the back of an envelope (as long as it gets all of the oil and none of the banks!), but would probably get rated lower. UK to get downgraded on uncertainty?…
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It’s over 4 years since the financial crisis began, and by now you would have thought that we would understand all the factors that drove the building of, and since 2007, the destruction of the foundations of world economic growth….
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If this is part 2 of the Great Recession, what were the 10 recent policy errors that got us here?
- Topics
- global economy, recession
Posted September 23rd, 2011
When it was all academic, I enjoyed reading about the causes of the Wall Street Crash, the Great Depression and the German hyper-inflation. Policy errors abounded. The UK going back on to the Gold Standard in the middle of the…
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The Fed, like many central banks, has moved on from conventional to unconventional policy tools to attempt to stimulate the flagging US economy. This was manifested yesterday by the introduction of “Operation Twist”. Operation twist involves the Fed selling $400…
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The outlook for fixed income after the summer of discontent
- Topics
- economic factors
Posted September 14th, 2011
What a summer we have had in bond markets! The US and French bank downgrade, limited policy flexibility, aftermath of the Japan earthquake, rising commodity prices and sovereign and banking concerns already had markets on edge. A further deterioration in…
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Beware the doom and gloom merchants on euro unemployment
- Topics
- Europe, unemployment
Posted October 29th, 2010
The euro area unemployment rate rose to 10.1% today, a level not seen since July 1998. But does the market place too much emphasis on this number? Of course it is always important to keep a close eye on unemployment…
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Mervyn King has regularly referred to the great moderation as the NICE era: Non-Inflationary Consistently Expansionary period. Obviously, those days are well gone as we are over three years into the credit crunch, a vast array of stimulus measures have…
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Now that the new budget has been announced by George Osborne and spending review disseminated, the coalition is lauding its merits and the opposition is deflecting responsibility for the deficit and exposing flaws in the cuts. Today’s budget and public…
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Last week a client asked us why US TIPS (inflation linked government bond) yields have been negative for much of this year (see chart), and we’re not sure we gave a very good answer. This weekend, to distract myself from…
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