This post was originally published on 11.01.12 in English and has been translated for our German readers. 2011 hat der Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar 3,2% verloren. Nach allem, was 2011 in Europa passiert ist, sind viele überrascht, dass der Euro…
Tag Archives: Federal reserve
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Für einen deutlich schwächeren Euro müssten die Renditen auf deutsche Staatsanleihen sehr weit in negatives Terrain fallen. Das könnte leicht passieren.
- Topics
- Europe, government bonds
Posted January 16th, 2012
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German government bond yields may need to get very negative for the euro to weaken much further. And it could easily happen
- Topics
- Europe, government bonds
Posted January 11th, 2012
In 2011 the euro underperformed the US dollar by 3.2%. Given everything that’s occurred in Europe, many people have been surprised that the euro has not been weaker, and numerous commentators continue to call for a much weaker euro in…
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M&G Fixed Interest team visits New York – Operation Twist, The Fed and corporate bond markets
- Topics
- covered bonds, US
Posted September 23rd, 2011
It’s been two and half years since our last visit to New York. As you can see in this latest video, the past few tumultuous years in the markets have not been kind to Jim, Richard and Stefan. Earlier this…
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The US is headed for recession – if 63 years of economic data are any guide to the future
- Topics
- debt, GDP, interest rates, recession, unemployment, US
Posted August 2nd, 2011
Think the US is out of the woods now that congress has come to an agreement on the debt ceiling? Not according to this chart from Rich Yamarone, an economist at Bloomberg. It’s called the “2 percent rule”. When US…
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It’s not 1993-1994 in the government bond markets. Unemployment is still way too high to provoke a Fed hike. But the Bank of England might be on the brink of a policy error…
- Topics
- government bond markets, inflation
Posted January 13th, 2011
Government bonds have been selling off over the past month. Since mid October the 10 year gilt yield has risen from 2.85% to 3.63%, the 10 year bund from 2.25% to 3.00%, and the 10 year US Treasury from 2.40% to…
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Recently, we have often spoken about QE, and how it could result in the demise of the bond vigilante (topsy turvy), and the birth of the currency vigilante. Well, we are getting very close to the presumed launch of further…
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A Nobel aim – to find the right match and reduce the poison of long term unemployment
- Topics
- quantitative easing, unemployment
Posted October 12th, 2010
Hi everyone, I’m the new guy onboard. I started at M&G last week but the rest of the team is already working really hard to find me a ridiculous nickname. Yesterday morning, I saw a familiar face in the news….
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Traditionally the main concern for a bond investor is inflation. It reduces the real returns of a bond, hence prompting higher long term interest rates, and causes the authorities to increase short term interest rates as a policy response. The…
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Turning Japanese I Think We’re Turning Japanese I Really Think So (follow up)
- Topics
- government bonds
Posted August 6th, 2010
There is only one explanation for why 2 year US Treasury yields broke below 0.5% today (an all time low), or why 10 year government bond yields in Germany and the US are currently 2.5% and 2.9% respectively. Or, for…
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Unemployment likely to rise for many months to come – Central Banks firmly on hold, perhaps for over a year
- Topics
- global economy, unemployment
Posted May 17th, 2010
With sovereign and political issues taking centre stage in markets recently, macroeconomic indicators have taken a back-seat in many market participants’ minds. But how have the advanced economies been recovering, absent these risks? Today I’d like to focus on some…
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