We first started writing about the credit crunch 3 years ago (see August 2007). Since then, short-term interest rates in the USA, Europe and the UK have collapsed to near zero. Ten year government bond yields across the respective economies…
Tag Archives: monetary policy
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Some thoughts from the Barclays Capital Inflation Conference
- Topics
- global economy, inflation
Posted June 30th, 2010
I went to the excellent Barclays Capital Inflation Conference a couple of weeks ago – although titled “inflation”, a lot of the conference’s content concerned the growing fears about the solvency of western governments. In particular, whilst the US Treasury market…
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The past couple of days have seen Greek debt take a bit of a battering. Spreads on Greek government bonds are the widest they have been since the inception of the Euro, and Greek 5yr CDS is wider by 100bps+…
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The granting of independence to the Bank of England following Labour’s victory in the 1997 UK General Election caused a collapse in inflation expectations. Whilst inflation expectations had been drifting down anyway, thanks mainly to globalisation and a demographic productivity…
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To target low inflation or to target high inflation: that is the question
- Topics
- global economy, inflation
Posted March 29th, 2010
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous inflation, Or to take arms against a sea of inflation expectations, And by opposing end them? Never has Shakespeare been so crudely adapted, but I am…
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UK money supply shrinks by most ever – QuitE a Dilemma
- Topics
- quantitative easing, UK
Posted January 21st, 2010
Today we have seen the preliminary release of M4 money supply (so-called ‘ broad money’), and it could potentially be a very important piece of economic data. December saw a 1.1% drop in the money supply, the largest monthly fall…
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As many of you are aware, we have been following the developments in housing markets quite closely, particularly in the UK. The housing markets were both a signpost and then a symptom that helped to drive inflation lower and brought…
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Moody’s this week published its December 2006 default report showing a fall from 1.8% to 1.7% marking its fifth consecutive annual decline and its lowest year-end level since 1996. Accomodative monetary policy, high levels of liquidity and a willingness to…
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