The inflation spark that could become a deflation shock? The inflation spark that could become a deflation shock?

The dollar’s slide last year looks less like a sudden break and more like the culmination of pressures that have been gathering for a while. The fading of US exceptionalism has sat quietly in the background, and once the narrative started to normalise, the cracks became clearer: softer growth expectations, slower capital inflows, and valuations that had been leaning heavily on the idea that the US could keep outperforming indefinitely.

The sharp sell‑off across software names in recent weeks has prompted questions from investors, many centred on whether the rapid rise of agentic artificial intelligence marks the beginning of a deeper structural shift in enterprise technology. The catalyst was the latest demonstration from Anthropic’s Claude platform, whose new “Cowork” and “Code” capabilities promise to automate tasks that were once firmly in human hands, from drafting documents and synthesising research to generating production‑ready code. Equity markets were quick to draw conclusions, punishing enterprise software companies without…

The record breaking $55bn leveraged buyout (LBO) of Electronic Arts (EA) is expected to close this year. But in a twist that could madden bondholders, EA is tendering for its bonds well below par instead of honouring the 101 Change of Control provision, saving itself over $250m at bondholders’ expense. Many bonds include a Change of Control clause that requires the issuer to offer to repurchase at 101 in the event of a takeover. The idea is to protect bondholders from a deterioration in credit…

Investors’ appetite for local markets remains solid. In our view, this is supported by two main factors. The first one being that emerging markets continue to offer compelling macroeconomic fundamentals, and the second one being a rising interest in diversification from structurally long USD exposures. We outline four key reasons why our Emerging Market Debt (EMD) team believes EM local debt should continue to offer value in the quarters ahead.

With geopolitics taking centre stage, the seismic tremors of Stablecoin activity go largely unnoticed. Stablecoins sit at a fascinating intersection of finance and technology. They promise the speed and programmability of cryptocurrencies with the price stability of traditional money. What began as a niche settlement tool for crypto markets is now being discussed as a parallel monetary system—with profound implications for banks, credit creation, and financial stability. What are stablecoins? Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to maintain a stable value, usually pegged to a fiat…

Emerging market (EM) bonds have had an impressive year so far, delivering double-digit total returns across both hard and local currency. This compares favourably with developed market (DM) bond returns, and so EM should continue to attract crossover investors who have the mandate to allocate some of their capital to EM when they see fit. Nowadays, the investment rationale is often reinforced by a popular argument that some of the developed markets have recently witnessed high policy uncertainty which was more prevalent only in EM…

In writing these blogs one hopes to be insightful, consistent, and timely, ie to try to emulate the output of Howard Marks at Oaktree.

His memo of January this year on equities inspired us to look further into the relative attractiveness of bonds vs equities (here).

Howard has updated his thoughts in August (link) –  this looks like something that is seriously on his mind.

The United States is on the brink of an industrial transformation that could redefine its economic trajectory. Inward investment is surging, driven by a wave of new manufacturing plants, onshoring and reshoring initiatives, and a parallel boom in data centre and power generation construction. This is not incremental change; it is a structural shift that will demand vast amounts of labour, raw materials, and productive capacity.