The Bond Vigilantes World Cup Model The Bond Vigilantes World Cup Model

Kevin Warsh walked into his first Fed meeting needing to prove something. The result was predictably hawkish. Rates held steady for the fourth consecutive meeting, but the signal was anything but neutral. Nine policymakers flagged support for higher rates this year, a dramatic shift from March, when not a single member pencilled in a hike.

High but seemingly unstoppable, markets continue to perform strongly despite a series of significant economic and geopolitical shocks. Meanwhile, academic and institutional voices warn that financial vulnerabilities are elevated at a time when policy flexibility is constrained.

Europe’s utilities sector is on the brink of a generational shift. After more than a decade of subdued demand, the system is being forced to modernize, rebuild and expand. Electrification, datacentres, renewable integration and ageing infrastructure are converging into what can only be described as unprecedented capital expenditure programmes across the sector.

With headline-dependent oil price hovering at +/-10% around $100 per barrel, the rates market has been rapidly repricing as bond investors continue to analyse the impact of oil on inflation, monetary policy, and trade balances across developed and emerging economies. The World Bank provides a very useful chart (below) for identifying which countries are net crude oil exporters or importers (or neither). At a high level, it is not hard to form the view that Asia and Europe are the regions most affected by a…

The biggest shift in credit markets over the past six months hasn’t come from banks or industrials, but from Big Tech.

Markets rarely move on hope alone. When uncertainty rises, they tend to price risk first, often before outcomes are clear. The renewed tensions in the Middle East are a reminder of that dynamic, bringing energy risk, inflation concerns and policy credibility back into focus.

My Bloomberg monitor and my TV are telling me different stories. Headlines are dominated by conflict, energy shocks, and warnings about inflation and supply chains. Yet my Bloomberg screen suggests a very different picture: equities are at record highs and credit spreads are tight.

Let’s start with a simple explanation of what a hybrid is: a perpetual bond that combines features of both debt and equity. Hybrids are subordinated to senior bonds but rank ahead of equity and possess equity-like features, such as loss-absorption and the ability to defer coupons. The corporate hybrid market has kicked off 2026 with a bang. Year‑to‑date gross issuance has already surpassed €31bn, well ahead of prior run‑rates (full‑year 2025 ended at €42bn).

As the world grapples with how AI will shape and change our lives going forward from the mundane, like automated homes or more clever apps, to more existential threats (opportunities?) leading to job and possibly sector obsolescence and related, broader social implications, it’s definitely well accepted that the demand for AI computing power is enormous and growing. Estimates vary, but they are all astronomical, ranging from $5 trillion to $7 trillion in capital investment needed to fund the global data centre and AI buildout, including…

Since Keith So joined us earlier this year as a quantitative analyst, I’ve been throwing all manner of questions at him and his python notebooks. The most recent was; “Is there an optimum place to invest on the yield curve to maximise the benefits of rolldown?”