In this episode of BVTV, I take a look at how the global economy is expected to perform in the second half of 2017. Is it a Goldilocks scenario of solid growth, low inflation and gradual monetary policy tightening, or is something more sinister lurking beneath the surface?
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I’m now more than three quarters of the way through my attempt to climb 100 iconic hills, bergs, kops and mountains on my bike in 2017. It’s been amazing fun so far, and I’ve ridden a huge variety of different types of hill and mountain with some great people. The hardest? Well it took me six tries to get up Bristol’s Vale Street, the steepest residential road in the UK – but I was on a stat…
Read the articleAs we enter the second half of 2017, one of the biggest themes to emerge recently has been renewed oil price weakness. M&G credit analyst Vladimir Jovkovic joins me this morning on BVTV to discuss what’s driving the latest price falls and what the possible implications may be for the next US high yield investment cycle. Also this morning: a quick recap of how bond markets have performed in the …
Watch the videoJoin us on BVTV, where this week we discuss:
Tune in for our thoughts on the stories making headlines this week.
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Oil has entered a bear market, despite OPEC’s ongoing supply reduction of 1.8m barrels/day, which started in January 2017 and is set to continue until March 2018. How are fixed income markets reacting? Also, Argentina has been in the news twice this week: successfully tapping the market for the $2.75bn sale of a 2117 bond, but failing to make MSCI’s upgrade from frontier to emerging markets. Ho…
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Argentina’s recently issued century bond deal was unexpected in terms of timing and maturity. Century bonds in Emerging Markets (EM) are rare (we think the table below is pretty exhaustive) and they grab the headlines, especially when issued by a credit that has defaulted many (many) times, like Argentina.
Are century bonds that much risker?
Despite US rate hikes in December, March and another last week, the US dollar has depreciated back to pre-election levels. All of the Trumpflation dollar premium has disappeared. As the Trump dollar trade appears to have run out of steam, the Euro has however been climbing. Optimism around the Euro area growth comeback grew leading up to the ECB meeting earlier this month, with EUR/USD hittin…
Read the articleA hiking Fed has caused trouble for Emerging Markets in the past; will history repeat itself? Also, we touch on two things from the Fed meeting that are more interesting than the actual hike itself.
Tune in for the latest edition of BVTV, where Fund Manager Claudia Calich joined me to discuss how she has positioned her EM debt portfolios for the second half of the year.
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1. The ECB can act quickly when considering if a bank has reached the point of non-viability (PONV), and enacting a resolution plan. The speed with which regulators acted clearly took the market by surprise. At the same time, how the regulator determines a bank to be non-viable is still a grey area (considering the situation around some of the weaker Italian banks).
2. EU stress tests are not…
Read the articleWhile last week ended with British prime minister Theresa May promising to provide ‘certainty’ after yet another shock election result, for markets, the opposite looks likely to be true. And with the renewed uncertainty of a hung parliament likely to prove unhelpful in upcoming Brexit negotiations, what implications can markets draw for UK growth prospects and the likely direction of gilts? Tun…
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