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BVTV: Trump’s first 100 days. How’s that reflation trade looking?

Bond markets are behaving like the Trump reflation trade isn’t going to happen, whilst equities seem to believe in 4% GDP growth 4evah.  Today I’m joined by M&G multi-asset fund manager and author Eric Lonergan to discuss Trump’s first hundred days in office, and to think about this seeming disconnect in asset valuations.

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Czech out: Thoughts on the removal of the currency cap

The Czech National Bank (CNB) has removed its cap against the Euro, which I blogged about earlier this year. Though the signs had been pointing to an early removal (headline inflation had been within the target range since October last year and the CNB had hardened its signalling language), the timing of yesterday’s move at the central bank’s extraordinary meeting did come as a surprise. Curren…

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Cracks in the reflation trade

It is hard to remember a time when there was so much disagreement around the outlook for corporate bond markets and risk assets. Some investors remain sceptical about the underlying strength of the rally and are uneasy at the pace at which secular stagnation concerns were washed away by the election of Donald Trump. Other investors, hesitant to hold cash or in negative yielding short-dated gove…

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I will shave my legs for just £500

I’m three months into my attempt to climb 100 iconic hills, bergs, kops and mountains on my bike in 2017.  So far I’ve ridden up 28 of them, mostly in torrential rain.

The purpose of all this is to raise money for Cancer Research UK, as part of the asset management industry’s goal of donating over £1 million to the great cause this year.  So far we’ve collectively raised over £300,000 as part …

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Eurobonds: one bond to fund them all

The German federal election in September still seems far away. However, for the first time in years, it appears possible that Angela Merkel could actually lose the election. Martin Schulz, Chancellor candidate and chairman of the Social Democratic Party, is having some early signs of success in the polls and is gaining momentum. As a result, investors in European (and UK ) debt might want to re…

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BVTV: The end of the beginning – what to look for as Brexit talks finally get going

After a momentous week for the UK last week, Matthew Russell joined me this morning to discuss what the much-anticipated start of Brexit negotiations hold for gilt markets. Tune in to our latest edition of BVTV to hear us discuss:

  • Gilt markets’ journey since the EU referendum last year
  • What signs we’ll be looking out for from the Bank of England
  • Where to find pockets of value in sterling credi…

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BVTV: Our global credit dealer discusses demand, supply, central bank purchases and more

I was joined by Chris Clemmow (Fixed Income Dealer, M&G Investments) this morning for a quick chat about global credit markets. Chris is at the coal face of bond markets, and is a primary source of market information for the fund managers at M&G.  Tune in for a discussion of the prevailing market dynamics of the investment grade bond market, and a look at what happens when Article 50 is trigger…

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Canada’s increasingly divergent rate path

Yields on Canadian sovereign bonds have been dragged higher in recent months, with the yield on the 10-year bond recently reaching 2 year highs. This sell-off appears to reflect the US reflation narrative, rather than the economic fundamentals of the Canadian economy.

The market currently thinks the Bank of Canada will remain on hold throughout 2017, pricing in only one rate hike – a 20 basis …

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