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Trump should reappoint Yellen. Also: credit spreads are tight, Tesla, Laffer’s napkin and other stuff.

  1. The Fed Chair choice should be obvious for Trump.  Yellen all the way.  I don’t understand why he would choose Taylor.

President Trump is likely to announce his choice for the next Fed Chair by the end of this month.  Whilst current Chair Janet Yellen is still in the running, she has been slipping down the betting over the past few weeks.  There are three good reasons why (from his perspectiv…

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BVTV: What markets make of Europe’s latest political developments

After a couple of months in which central bank policy moves rather than politics have dominated, investors’ attention has recently been pulled back to the political arena. Fund manager Wolfgang Bauer joined me this morning to discuss what Austria’s presidential election result, and Catalonia’s unfolding bid for independence from Spain, mean for government bond and credit markets.

Also –would a …

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M&G Panoramic Outlook: “Responsible Junk” – The challenge of integrating ESG factors into a global high yield Bond portfolio.

Growing awareness of a range of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues has seen an ever larger number of investors move their focus away from purely financial goals towards an approach that also considers the ESG impact of their investments. Consequently,  a pressing question that faces the asset management industry is how to integrate ESG factors into different asset classes and str…

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BVTV: Are the Brexit bears getting less bearish?

It’s party conference season in the UK, with the Conservative party conference now underway. All eyes will be on Theresa May and her senior cabinet ministers, as investors try to gauge the latest Brexit developments. Anjulie Rusius, our UK-focussed junior fund manager, has joined me this morning to discuss recent signals coming out from the Bank of England and the government, and what these mea…

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German unemployment rate and real GDP growth

Angela Merkel’s Pyrrhic victory

And they say German elections are boring… As the preliminary results are in, here are our three key takeaways.

(1) Merkel goes fourth

First things first, as expected Angela Merkel has won the election. Her CDU, in combination with its Bavarian sister party CSU, is going to remain the largest faction in parliament (33.0% of votes combined). All roads lead to a fourth term for her as chancellor. …

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BVTV: What to watch for as the Fed begins balance sheet reduction

In today’s environment of solid, synchronised economic growth and low volatility, it is easy to believe such conditions are well set to continue. Did you know that we are now in the third longest bull run in the history of financial markets?

This week on BVTV I look back at the run-up to previous market bubbles and discuss what the Fed’s long-awaited balance sheet reduction announcement could m…

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Is it time for the Bank of England to target nominal GDP?

In December 2012, the then Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, gave a speech entitled “Guidance” to the CFA Society of Toronto. Less than two weeks earlier, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, had announced that Carney would be the 120th Governor of the Bank of England (BoE). As this was Carney’s first public engagement since the announcement, traders and market economi…

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BVTV: Inflation surprises and central bank dilemmas

Ben Lord, corporate bond fund manager and inflation specialist, joined me in the studio this morning, after a week in which we saw both the UK and US CPI prints surprise to the upside. With some central banks ramping up their hawkish rhetoric in recent weeks, what likelihood of rate hikes are markets now pricing in, and what impact is this having on bond markets? Watch BVTV for Ben’s latest thi…

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