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2018: The end of the (QE) affair. M&G’s economic and bond market outlook

In our latest Panoramic Outlook, Jim Leaviss assesses the forces behind the robust and broad-based nature of global economic growth in recent months and the prospects for this broadly rosy outlook continuing into 2018. He looks at where we are within the current global deleveraging cycle, and asks how high this means that rates can go. In Jim’s view, the quality of investment grade credit has s…

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The M&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2017

Here is the 11th annual Christmas Quiz.  20 questions, and the closing date for entries is midday on Friday 22nd December.  Please email your answers to us at bondteam@bondvigilantes.co.uk.  The winner will get glory, and in lieu of a golden trophy, M&G has donated £500 to Cancer Research UK, through CASCAID.  CASCAID is the UK asset management industry’s effort to raise £2 million for this bri…

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What do global government bond indices look like in a QE adjusted world?

Richard recently wrote about how government bond indices should be adjusted to account for quantitative easing (QE) purchases, thereby better reflecting the actual availability of investments in the market. A key argument indicated that given the absence of this adjustment, European government indices are incorrectly skewed towards more highly rated sovereigns, even though their issuance is not…

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Posted under QE

BVTV: Fund Manager Stefan Isaacs on 2017, 2018, and the prospects for Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League

This week Stefan Isaacs joins me to review the year that was. Sitting on a bond desk in the City of London, it appeared to be a solid but pretty dull year for fixed income markets. Fortunately, we had the drama of Brexit negotiations and Donald Trump to keep us occupied over the course of the year.

I also question Stefan about his 2018 outlook for bond markets, and whether Liverpool can actuall…

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A pretty good indicator of USD/EUR exchange rate movements

After four calendar years of price appreciation, it looks like the US dollar will end 2017 deeply in negative territory. The dollar has fallen by almost 12% this year versus the euro and around 8% on a trade weighted basis. More surprisingly, the sharp depreciation of the dollar against the euro has occurred in a period when central bank policy has diverged, resulting in the yield differential …

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BVTV: World Cup 2018 – the DM v EM showdown

Following on from last Friday’s suspenseful draw for next summer’s World Cup in Russia, we thought it would be a good moment to take a closer look at some of the 32 qualifying nations, and see how they stack up from the perspective of our bond market experts. I am joined in the studio by Fund manager Wolfgang Bauer, and we discuss some of the pressing macro issues facing this eclectic mix of DM…

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Low yield, low quality, weaker covenants

When investing in companies of a lower credit quality, loss given default risk is the key threat that investors have to assess. Consequently, covenant protection is a crucial consideration before lending capital to a company. We wrote about covenant protection back in 2014 and it’s fair to say that covenant quality in the high yield market hasn’t improved much since then; actually quite the opp…

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BVTV: Listed infrastructure – how would the asset class respond to higher interest rates and inflation?

A number of asset classes, including listed infrastructure assets, have benefited from the global search for yield that has taken place following a collapse in short and long-term government bond yields. But what if the positive tailwinds of low interest rates and inflation start to reverse? Whilst the current consensus is that monetary policy stimulus will be removed at a very gradual pace, it…

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En route to Kilkenomics: a Bond Vigilantes and Episode Blog brainstorming video

I made what is turning into an annual pilgrimage to the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland, last weekend, this time along with Eric Lonergan and Tristan Hanson from M&G’s multi-asset fund management team.

En route, we met some clients in Dublin and then took the opportunity to set the world to rights over a pint or two in legendary pub Kehoes. In these three short videos, we sh…

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