The lesson the Japanese economy has for the developed world

One of the most commonly reported themes in financial markets today is the fear of disinflation/deflation, and how monetary authorities need to take economic action to avoid becoming the “next Japan”. In February I commented on the fact that the fear of disinflation and deflation is not as logically straight forward as you may think. I think the common assumption that developed economies do not want to end up like Japan is also worth investigating.

Japan is commonly seen as the modern poster child of ineffective monetary and government policy. The policy errors of the Japanese authorities in the 1990s are seen as having resulted in a depressed economy that has stood still over the last 25 years. This view has partly come about as financial markets often simply judge an economy by observing how its equity market performs. Given the crash in the Nikkei from over 40,000 in the early 1990s to around 16,000 today, equity market performance as a measure of Japanese economic health has become engrained in the market’s psyche.

In reality the strength of economies should be measured by their economic output and not equity market performance. In this regard, at first glance the national data bear out that Japan has lagged most countries in terms of nominal and real economic growth.

Slide1

The simple measures of nominal and real GDP are often regurgitated as to why we do not want to end up like Japan. But from an economist’s point of view, what matters most is GDP per head. The fact that one country grows more than another is not to be celebrated economically if it is in fact engendered solely by an increase in population.

Below is a chart of real GDP per capita. It shows that Japan has not been an economic failure from a local point of view. Rather, the Japanese economic experience has actually been quite positive in terms of increasing living standards for the average Japanese citizen over the last 25 years.

Slide2

However the chart above shows Japan still lagging; no wonder economists still fear a Japanese outcome. Nevertheless I believe that a truer measure of GDP should not only be correlated to the number of people in its national boundaries, but should be seen in the context of the shifting function of the long term demographics of the population. A country with a baby boom will experience strong GDP in the boom, and weaker GDP at the end of a population bulge. Workers retire; consumption and investment fall. In order to take into account the true GDP per head, one has to put this into context, by looking at the size of the working population, not just the size of the actual population. Below we chart GDP per head of working population. This adjustment allows a fairer reflection of GDP per head, with the Japanese situation improving on a relative basis again.

Slide3

What lessons can we learn from Japan ? Firstly it is not as bad as it looks given the true potential GDP per head of population. In fact monetary and fiscal policy has worked in Japan. Low inflation and the zero bound of monetary policy is something we and policy makers naturally fear. Maybe we fear it too much based on simple analysis of headline numbers.

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

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  1. jack jones says:

    amazing to see how well the UK does in the above charts – I wonder if Richard could tell us if this performance is for real and, if so, are there any lessons from the uk for the rest of the developed world

    Posted on: 07/10/14 | 3:41 pm
  2. Dave Og says:

    I agree that Japan, on a personal level is not a soup-line, but the effects of the slow GDP growth on society has made worse the birthrate and resulted in more part-time work, less career growth. This has all translated into risk aversion in the stock market and large savings rates.

    These are all trends being seen in Europe and the US. No soup lines coming here either, but risk aversion to stock market and increased saving rates are likely coming.

    The missing data point, which links these economies is the growth of the public sector. The private sector is always examined in regard to the state of economies, but the size and growth of the public sector is ignored. Japan’s problem is the size and scope of the public sector, as is Europe and the US.

    As government grows its corrupting effects stifle real growth. Until there is a movement to “limited government” none of the Western economies will grow at past rates. At the same time, China, Russia, India and other countries will growth faster, as the shed their oppressive governments of the past.

    Posted on: 29/10/14 | 6:28 pm

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