Monthly Archives:

July 2018

BVTV: Will BoE deliver?

In a busy week for central banks, attention will turn on Thursday to whether the Bank of England finally delivers a 25bp hike, having confounded expectations at its last meeting.

Should this prove the case, what impact will it have on the various parts of the UK bond market? I’m joined this week by Matthew Russell, who shares his thoughts on how a rise will affect markets, and whether sterling …

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The digital shift: Where have all the shops gone?

“If your time to you is worth savin’, then you better start swimmin’ or you’ll sink like a stone, for the times they are a-changin.” Bob Dylan     

Bob Dylan wasn’t probably thinking that his lines would apply to global retailers as many as 55 years after writing them – but they do.

Consumers are changing habits so rapidly that not all brands and retailers are quick enough to adapt to the new …

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Panoramic Weekly: Japan sneezes, markets get a cold

Speculation that Japan, traditionally a bastion of bond market stability, may shift its ultra-loose monetary policy pushed most developed market government yields higher over the past five trading days: higher rates in Japan may reduce demand for global assets as the billions of yen that fled the country’s negative-yielding monetary policy two years ago may now return home. The central bank’s d…

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BVTV: Demystifying US high yield – what’s driving YTD performance?

While 2018 has been a mixed year for bond investors so far, with many indices posting negative returns, the US high yield market has – perhaps surprisingly – managed to navigate its way through the turbulence. The sector’s intrinsically shorter duration than its investment grade counterpart may explain part of the divergence, but this is only part of the story.

Watch the latest episode of BVTV …

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Panoramic Weekly: The US vs. the world

Prices of most global corporate bonds rose over the past five trading days, as above-expectations US economic data fuelled the dollar, took US equities to new heights, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed its US growth prospects while cutting those for the Eurozone, Britain and Japan. The risk-on optimism left behind Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign debt, hit by the protracted US-…

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BVTV: Tech in 2018 vs 2000 – ‘don’t look back in anger?’

Last time I was on BVTV, we touched on how Apple’s market cap is rapidly approaching that of all Europe’s banks combined, prompting me to focus in on the tech sector today, as I try to answer some of the questions that we are most frequently asked by clients. In particular, what are the similarities and differences between 2000 and 2018, and why is momentum (aka hope) currently winning out in t…

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Panoramic Weekly: Risk Assets Rally Despite Trade Wars

Traditional fixed income risk assets, such as Emerging Markets (EM) and High Yield (HY), rallied over the past five trading days, shrugging off an escalation of the trade tensions between the US and China. The world’s No. 1 economy announced plans to set tariffs on an additional US$200bn worth of Chinese goods, adding to the $34bn that came into effect on Friday. The almost 200-page list of goo…

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EM bonds YTD review and outlook

While emerging market bonds have notably underperformed in the year-to-date period, Fund Manager Claudia Calich believes the longer-term fundamental case for the asset class remains intact. The outlook for broad-based global economic growth is still in place, for example, which should help fiscal improvements and deleveraging in emerging countries. In this Bond Vigilantes video, Claudia also no…

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BVTV: A Farewell to Shops?

Toys R Us and House of Fraser are some of the high street names that have faced tough competition from online retailers in recent years. Is the bricks & mortar model passé? Are some industries more resilient than others? And what does this mean for investors? Watch M&G’s Stephen Wilson-Smith explain how a French beauty giant sells more products online than in Latin America and how a US ice-crea…

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BVTV: 2018 YTD – meeting consensus expectations?

As we have now reached the halfway point of 2018, it seems like a good occasion to take stock and see whether the year has lived up to consensus expectations so far. With more news surprises and volatility so far than in 2017, how do the market’s predictions for which asset classes would perform best look today? Watch the latest episode of BVTV as I review year-to-date returns and look at why t…

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