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Despite Brexit, Sterling credit holds up with a surprise front runner

With Brexit in every headline, it’s hard not to form an opinion on the possible outcome for the UK. Investors are getting increasingly edgy about the impact on certain asset classes, and I have read many articles predicting which sectors will do well in various exit scenarios. Sterling credit has remained healthy since the referendum, led by robust fundamentals and not by politics as the pound …

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Should investors care about GDP data revisions in emerging markets? A Benin case study

Statistical data represents only an approximation of reality, and sometimes not a very good one. Generally, the less economically developed a country is, the worse the quality of the data provided by the government authorities. This increases the likelihood of later revisions, as new facts are uncovered or the methodology adjusted to better reflect the changing reality. Investors in emerging ma…

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Bond indices are shifting their attention to China – so should you

It is widely recognized that China is globally well-integrated from a trade perspective (it accounted for 13% of total world exports in 2017 according to the WTO). Yet in comparison, its financial markets remain in relative isolation. Indeed, despite having the 2nd largest equity and 3rd largest bond markets in the world (currently around $13 trillion), foreign participation in these markets re…

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Could ‘Green Bunds’ be a cure for Europe’s economic malaise?

Compared to one and a half years ago, when the prevailing narrative was still revolving around global synchronised growth, the economic outlook for Europe has darkened significantly. From ‘peak optimism’ levels in late 2017, Euro area real GDP growth has slowed to 1.2%, while Eurozone manufacturing PMI has dropped by more than ten points. Even the notoriously optimistic ECB eventually had to co…

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