jim_leaviss_100

Author profile

Jim Leaviss

Years in the bond markets: 22

Specialist subjects: Macro economics and fixed interest asset allocation

Likes: Cycling, factory records, dim sum

Heroes: Brian Clough, Morrissey, Neil Armstrong

Featured Post

Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots: a short interview. Also win one of 5 copies of his book.

My book of the year in 2015 was The Rise of the Robots by Martin Ford.  I wasn’t alone in liking it; it was the FT McKinsey Business Book of the Year, and set the debate for a year of robotisation stories in financial markets.  Last week we held a Bond Vigilantes x Technology conference here at M&G, with great speeches from Diane Coyle on Digitally Disruptive GDP (are we measuring growth or inf…

Read the article

Negative Rate World (NRW) – a wiki of unintended consequences

The world has seen negative interest rates before – Switzerland set interest rates below zero for foreigners in the 1970s in order to slow flows into the Franc.  But today’s negative rate environment is far more widespread, with Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Japan, and the Eurozone all setting negative policy rates.  Lots has been written about the intended transmission mechanisms of negative r…

Read the article

Does the Overton Window apply to monetary policy? And four other things.

A few things that I’ve found interesting over the past week or so:

  1. I’m just back from a week’s holiday in France, and my news source whilst I was away was the hotel’s International New York Times. Terrible for English Championship football rumours, but lots about US politics and in particular the recent discussion about the Overton Window.  Joseph Overton’s theory is that there is a limited ra…

Read the article

M&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2015 – the answers and the new champion

Thanks very much for another bumper stack of entries to the annual Christmas quiz.  This year’s winner, and new reigning champion is Jake Lewis of Morgan Stanley.  Congratulations, we will be in touch to see where you’d like the £100 charity donation to go.   You also win the Morrissey novel, as do the following brave runners up.  Gary Callow of Investec, (2014 champion) Marton Huebler of Fidel…

Read the article

Japan trip report – a video from Tokyo. Inflation, Abenomics and cute robots

We did a research trip to Tokyo last month. The main discovery by my colleagues Anjulie Rusius and Anthony Doyle was that I am “annoyingly good at karaoke”. I have to put my hands up to that one. Sadly for you my singing didn’t make it into the official trip report video. Instead we discuss why, counter to popular myth, Japanese policymakers might not want either a) a much weaker yen or b) any …

Read the article

M&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2015

Here is the 9th annual Christmas Quiz.  20 questions, and the closing date for entries is midday on Thursday 24th December.

Please email your answers to us at bondteam@bondvigilantes.co.uk.  The winner will get glory, and can choose a charity from our approved list to which we will donate £100.  She or he will also get a copy of Morrissey’s atrociously reviewed novel, and “Bad Sex” award winner…

Read the article

“Between Debt & The Devil”. An interview with Adair Turner, and a chance to win a copy of his book.

I spoke to Adair Turner last week about his new book, “Between Debt and the Devil”.  You can see my interview with him below.

Early in 2012, as the UK struggled to escape recession, I asked the question “if the government simply cancelled the £300 bn+ of QE gilts held by the BoE, who would be unhappy?”.  Would that have really let an inflation genie out of the bottle?  I argued that even if i…

Read the article

Is it wrong to invest on space hardware? Will satellites put the ONS out of a job?

Two things last week that made me go “hmmm”.  Firstly: having written a blog on the impact of El Nino on global inflation (here), Anthony was contacted by a company who then came in to see us to discuss their business.  Using data from NASA and EU satellites, they produce earnings estimates for retailers, and forecast economic data.  By counting cars in Big Box parking lots from space, they gen…

Read the article
What has the recent fall in oil prices got to do with inflation over the next three decades?

What has the recent fall in oil prices got to do with inflation over the next three decades? Plus robots, charity, Morrissey.

First of all thanks to Business Insider.  Every now and then we come into work to find hundreds of new Twitter followers have joined us overnight – this week it was thanks to BI listing us second in its round up of finance Tweeters.  It’s a great list and pretty much everyone on it is worth a follow – I’d also recommend following Business Insider’s European markets editor Mike Bird (@Birdyword)…

Read the article
M&G YouGov survey

New M&G YouGov survey: there’s very low support in Europe for sovereign bailouts

Our new survey, carried out with YouGov across several EU member states (the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria), shows that there is a low level of support for future sovereign bailouts in the event of debt crises and economic difficulties.  The following question was asked as part of the M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey – the full survey will be released here in early Octob…

Read the article