Wowsers, the U.S. labour market never ceases to amaze bond investors. After the cataclysmic April U.S. employment report—nonfarm payrolls (NFP) had dropped by 20.7 million and the unemployment rate had shot up to 14.7%—there was broad agreement amongst market observers that May would prove to be another challenging month. In a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists, the most bullish forecast was a …Read the article
We are currently in the throes of the sharpest and largest economic downturn the modern global economy has ever seen. However, as I wrote in March this is very different from previous recessions.
To recap, a recession has three stages:
Stage 1: into recession
A rapid, record collapse in economic growth as normal economic life is dramatically curtailed for public health re…Read the article
Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Mongolia have each been severely impacted by COVID-19, albeit in different ways. These frontier economies each straddle two worlds. They’re emerging markets in the sense they’ve had access to global debt markets, with their eurobonds included in JP Morgan’s emerging market bond index. But their credit ratings are far below those of investment grade sovereigns, such as I…Read the article
Whenever there is the threat or the reality of recession, it usually follows a typical pattern. It is engendered by tight financial conditions, a real or market bubble bursting, a dramatic rise in the price of oil, or a combination of the above. This time it is different: a stay at home recession.
The 2020 economic slowdown isn’t due to any of the usual suspects, namely the US …Read the article
As we pass the 10-year anniversary of the Lehman default and we started thinking about what we were doing back in 2008 (desperately moving my savings out of certain banks was high on the list for me, whilst listening to MGMT and Los Campesinos; album of the year? TV On The Radio’s Dear Science), I went back to our blog, to see what the early warning signs were in the summer of that year.
It is …Read the article
Ten years after the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) it is time to pause and reflect about an event whose consequences still have a major impact on financial markets and people’s daily lives. In his book “Crashed: How a decade of financial crisis changed the world,” UK economist and Columbia University professor Adam Tooze challenges the way the GFC has been storified, points at so…Watch the video
Few people would have guessed right after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, ten years ago this week, that a golden decade for bond investors laid ahead – but it has happened: as many as 92 of the 100 fixed income asset classes tracked by Panoramic Weekly have delivered positive returns, with 17 of them offering triple-digit returns. The 2008 crisis’ most-battered asset classes, such as High Yiel…Read the article
Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager Claudia Calich analyses the potential effects of an escalation of the US-China trade tensions on Emerging Markets. Despite the diplomatic rows and all the column inches written, Claudia discusses how popular products such as French wine and cheese will always find their way to the end consumer, no matter how many barriers along the way. Calich also explains wh…Read the article