Category Archives:

macro and politics

Didn’t make it to the FT Festival of Finance? We interviewed Pettis, Keen, White and Leaviss for their views.

A few of the M&G bond team recently attended the FT’s Festival of Finance. Known as the Glastonbury of the Financial World, M&G’s Anthony Doyle brought a camera crew along and interviewed a number of speakers on the day, including Michael Pettis (China expert), Steve Keen (of “Debunking Economics” fame), Alex White (political pundit from The Economist) and our own Jim Leaviss. Watch the upcomin…

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Regional unemployment rates across the UK

A vision of the future? Optimal currency areas within the United Kingdom

The year is 2020 and King Henry IX, the recently installed head of state of the United Kingdom of Northern England, Wales and Northern Ireland stands in a room overlooking the Trent River. Most of his subjects still refer to him simply as “Harry”. His popularity with the electorate is seen as a key factor behind the surprise victory for the monarchists in the recent constitutional referendum fo…

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Dr Pippa Malmgren’s “Signals”. Watch our interview with her, and win her latest book.

Here’s the latest in our series of interviews with the authors of interesting and important new books on economics, politics and investing.  In it, Pippa Malmgren – a global strategist and former economics advisor to President George W. Bush – talks about “Signals”, her book about the challenges facing the global economy today both on a state level (China, Russia, the US) and for households.  I…

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Does the Overton Window apply to monetary policy? And four other things.

A few things that I’ve found interesting over the past week or so:

  1. I’m just back from a week’s holiday in France, and my news source whilst I was away was the hotel’s International New York Times. Terrible for English Championship football rumours, but lots about US politics and in particular the recent discussion about the Overton Window.  Joseph Overton’s theory is that there is a limited ra…

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16-03-11-CC-blog

The Central American Remittance Crunch – who would lose most from a Trump Presidency?

The US election campaign has surprised everyone thus far. Candidate Donald Trump has vowed to deport all of the 11 million illegal immigrants currently living in the US. He has also declared that he would impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages. We have written before how Central America and the Caribbean would benefit from improving US growth and have been invested in variou…

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15.11.04 blog CC1

Colombia: At risk of a rating downgrade to BBB-

Part of the ABC of Latin American debt series (see here for views on Argentina and here for Brazil)

During my recent trip to Latin America it was funny (but not surprising) to hear the locals worrying about Colombia becoming the next Brazil. In turn, Brazilians are worried about becoming Argentina (though I believe the Argentinean problems are much more solvable in the near term than Brazil’s) …

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US companies are scared of risk

Happy Halloween. Five scary charts that Freddy Krueger would be proud of.

M&G and bondvigilantes.com proudly present the scariest charts on the global economy. Some will make you laugh, some will make you cry. You will be amazed, you will be enchanted, you will be mystified, you will be amused. Of course, the following is not for the faint of heart. You have been warned.

  1. Companies are scared of risk

There has been a glut of corporate bond issuance since the financ…

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2015-10 blog CC Brazil 1

Brazil: caught in a destructive trap between politics and economics

Part of the ABC of Latin American debt series

Brazil currently finds itself caught in a destructive trap between politics and economics.

On the political front, it is impossible to trade the daily noise and headline risk. The possible impeachment (45% probability as a guesstimate) of Rouseff would still be subject to various steps and legal challenges and could take a minimum of 6-9 months. Thr…

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2015-10 blog CC (Argentina) - ENG2

The ABC of Latin American debt: Argentina trip report

I just spent two weeks traveling Latin America around the IMF meetings in Lima. The region is navigating through various shocks: lower commodity prices, deteriorating balance sheets, growth and fiscal deterioration, an urgent need for structural reforms and significant political challenges. There is plenty to write about, so in the next couple of days I will post a series of blogs focused on th…

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El Niño is coming. What are the effects on GDP, commodity prices and inflation?

Whilst economic forecasters are currently concerned about falling oil prices and the implications for global growth, weather forecasters worry about the impact an El Niño weather event could have on global weather patterns. In August, America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is a 90% chance that the current Niño event will continue through the remainder of the…

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