This week the 10-year German bund yield hit a new record low of -0.33% in the wake of Draghi’s Sintra speech which had echoes of his 2012 “whatever it takes” declaration. Why so dovish? Manufacturing data from the eurozone has been universally bad lately, and inflation expectations are collapsing. The core inflation rate is now just 0.8% and the ECB’s 2% target looks an impossible goal. The mar…Read the article
Back in 2017, the economic outlook was increasingly rosy for the Eurozone. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, a synchronised global recovery was in train. The Eurozone economy expanded apace, regularly surprising to the upside, unemployment continued to fall, the banking system had partially recapitalised and funding costs for corporates and sovereigns alike remained low on any measure…Read the article
Persistent structural weaknesses, imbalances, and financial fragilities. These were some of the ways in which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) described the Italian economy in its most recent country report. Almost a decade after the great financial crisis, Italy’s economic prospects remain dim, with the costs borne disproportionately by the working age and younger population. With no gove…Read the article
Venezuela’s cash flow crisis has been well covered. The recent default on its sovereign debt and likely default on the debt issued by its state-owned company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), combined with collapsing imports attest to its ongoing cash crunch and humanitarian crisis. ¹
A change of economic policy however, would alleviate the crisis and improve the patient’s health. This could …Read the article
On 22nd December last year, President Trump enacted probably the most significant achievement to date of his presidency by signing the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017. The precise implications of tax law changes can be fiendishly complicated and difficult to assess due to the numbing complexity of the legislation and individual companies’ tax planning arrangements. However, in broad strokes, I be…Read the article
And they say German elections are boring… As the preliminary results are in, here are our three key takeaways.
(1) Merkel goes fourth
First things first, as expected Angela Merkel has won the election. Her CDU, in combination with its Bavarian sister party CSU, is going to remain the largest faction in parliament (33.0% of votes combined). All roads lead to a fourth term for her as chancellor. …Read the article
1. On the face of it, long term US Treasury yields are looking fair value, having traded on the dear side since the middle of 2014. Below is a chart you will have seen before on the blog as I’ve been using it for some time. It shows the relationship between the Fed’s long term expectations of short term interest rates (taken, with a pinch of salt, from the FOMC’s dot plots) and the bond marke…Read the article
President Trump’s anti-Mexico rhetoric has made Mexican assets one of the key calls in emerging market debt. I have just returned from a research trip to Mexico where I met with local economists, analysts, and corporate bond issuers. Below are a number of observations from my time there.
Donald Trump won the election on a fairly protectionist rhetoric – with a special focus on Mexico – and the …Read the article
The world will soon turn to the inauguration of Donald Trump. For at least the next four years, global investment markets will be focusing on his Presidency. This is always the case when a new President takes over the reins of the most economically powerful country in the world, but why does it feel more important this time?
Firstly, political deadlock has been broken. For the first time since …Read the article
Today is the 10th anniversary of the Bond Vigilantes blog. Here’s a look back at the incredible changes to bond markets and monetary policy that we’ve been through over that decade. Also today we are launching our new book (the difficult second album) in support of Cancer Research UK. There’s a link to our Just Giving page at the bottom if you like what we do and can spare a few quid.Read the article