Tag Archives:

banks

First home owner grants – a gift to new home buyers, or existing?

We aren’t the first to have a look at George Osborne’s “Help to Buy” scheme. It has been met by warnings far and wide. Sir Mervyn King stated that “there is no place in the long run for a scheme of this kind”, whilst Albert Edwards from Societe Generale was a little more blunt when he wrote that it was “a moronic policy”. Even the IMF and the OBR are getting in on the act, warning that the sche…

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Pese a las apariencias, los países periféricos de Europa continúan padeciendo una crisis de deuda

This article appeared in English on 26 April.

A comienzos de esta semana, las rentabilidades de la deuda española a 5 y 10 años cayeron hasta los niveles más bajos desde el cuarto trimestre de 2010. No cabe duda de que esta recuperación fue estimulada por los comentarios de Mario Draghi relativos a que el BCE haría « todo lo necesario para salvar el euro» y posteriormente alentada por la mejora…

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Peripheral Europe is still facing a debt crisis, despite appearances

Earlier this week, 5 and 10 year Spanish yields fell to the lowest levels since Q4 2010. The rally was no doubt kick started by Mario Draghi’s “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” comment, and was given further fuel by the improvement in Eurozone economic data over the latter half of 2012, which was probably due in part to Draghi. However, the peripheral rally has continued this year in …

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I predict a CypRIOT: Three major implications for the European and UK banking systems

Stefan blogged earlier this week about the landmark sovereign bailout occurring in Cyprus, and about some of the interesting issues this raises. Sure enough, the parliament did not approve the package in the form talked about at the weekend. The reason? The taxes were felt too painful for the poor and too lenient for the more wealthy. This harks back to a blog I wrote about a couple of years ag…

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RBS – The Goodwin Lottery?

Vince Cable has suggested that the government’s shareholding in Royal Bank of Scotland should be parcelled off to UK citizens. The UK government’s ordinary shareholding in RBS Group (A shares) today stands at 65.29%, which goes up to  81.15% including B shares (shares with priority over dividends).

Assuming the UK government would distribute A shares only, this would give us roughly 63 shares e…

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Going Dutch – SNS nationalisation

We have been talking about the emergence of, and the effects of, the financial crisis in our blogs for a number of years now. However, more than 5 years into the crisis even we can be surprised. On Friday the Dutch government nationalised SNS, as capital injections from the private sector failed to appear. This action was undertaken to maintain the stability of the Dutch financial system.

This …

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Contingent capital notes – bank equity’s best friend?

As investors, the majority of our time is spent pricing risk with an increasing amount of that spent trying to value optionality. We’ve always had to price the optionality inherent in owning certain bonds. For instance what’s the likelihood of a call option sold to a bond issuer being exercised? What’s the likelihood of an early refinancing, or perhaps a change of control? These and other optio…

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Central Bank Regime Change: an update following the Fed last night, and Carney the day before

Last night’s move by the Federal Reserve to change its approach to US monetary policy to effectively reduce the focus on the inflation target was just the latest step in an accelerating project by the world’s monetary authorities.   In a world where unemployment rates are well above pretty much anyone’s estimate of the natural rate, and in many geographies well above 10%, the need for growth is…

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Don’t call us we’ll call you

We have opined on many occasions about the call features on bank debt and have long argued that investors and issuers should price these securities on economic rather than emotional grounds (for more detail, see Jim’s blog on Deutsche Bank being the first not to call a Lower Tier 2 bond in 2008).

However, even we were surprised late last week when Intesa SanPaolo decided to amend the terms of s…

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5 years on

On the 9th October 2007 the totem pole of capitalism, the S&P 500, peaked at 1,565. Last night it closed at 1,441. So, five years into the crisis, where are we in terms of clearing up the banking crisis?

There’s good news in the US. We have commented on the initial driver of the crisis in the world’s largest economy – the boom and bust of the housing market – on many occasions. Recently, we’ve …

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