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Lessons from Argentina

The past couple of days have seen Greek debt take a bit of a battering.  Spreads on Greek government bonds are the widest they have been since the inception of the Euro, and Greek 5yr CDS is wider by 100bps+ versus the beginning of the week. This seems to have been driven initially by nervousness around the anticipated bailout, with rumours that the Greeks are trying to renegotiate the deal tha…

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Football promotions, Buffett and the IMF World Cup

With the latest Beckham injury hitting both the front and back pages of our national newspapers, the FIFA Football World Cup will soon rival talk of elections and budgets for headlines. We are about to be bombarded with messages from numerous corporations eager to use the tournament to expand their profile within the consumer psyche.

Apart from the usual car, razor and fast food companies vying…

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The Bond Vigilantes visit the ECB

A couple of weeks ago I went on an incredibly useful trip to Frankfurt, where I met with some key policy makers from the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank, and discussed a range of issues including the timing of exit strategies and rate hikes, the inflation outlook, and the state of the banking sector. 

This video was recorded in early November, and it’s interesting that many of the thin…

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How much do homeowners stand to lose on the UK housing market?

At the beginning of October last year, Richard asked “Is the UK housing market on the brink?” (read article here). Conclusion – little danger of collapse in the short term, but any dropping away of mortgage approvals would change this view. By the end of November, mortgage approvals had indeed started to fall sharply, and Richard said the UK housing market was “over the edge” (see article). Mor… Read the article