US data released last week showed that US house prices fell by 14.4% in the year to the end of March (this is the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index, which the market tends to focus more on – the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Index was down 15.3%). The track record of these indices is not very long though – the composite-20 index goes back to 2000, while the composite-10 index began in 1987. S… Read the article
One of our favourite economic lead indicators was released yesterday – the rate of new mortgage approvals in the UK. Readers will probably be familiar with this by now as we discussed mortgage approvals in October
. Mortgage approvals are an excellent house price predictor because they show the amount of new money entering the housing market. Mortgage approvals drive the ho… Read the article
At the beginning of October last year, Richard asked “Is the UK housing market on the brink?” (read article here
). Conclusion – little danger of collapse in the short term, but any dropping away of mortgage approvals would change this view. By the end of November, mortgage approvals had indeed started to fall sharply, and Richard said the UK housing market was “over the edge” (see article
). Mor… Read the article
The US housing market is getting worse and worse, and the UK looks set to follow it.
Yesterday saw the monthly update on the disaster that is the US housing market. Figures showed that the downturn is accelerating – the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index showed that the US house prices fell 7.7% in the year to the end of last November. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Index (which covers the … Read the article