Author profile

Ana Gil

Years in the bond markets: 8

Specialist subjects: Economics and inflation

Likes: Tennis, travel, tidiness, sushi

Heroes: Amelia Earhart, Steve Jobs, Rafa Nadal

BVTV: What markets make of Europe’s latest political developments

After a couple of months in which central bank policy moves rather than politics have dominated, investors’ attention has recently been pulled back to the political arena. Fund manager Wolfgang Bauer joined me this morning to discuss what Austria’s presidential election result, and Catalonia’s unfolding bid for independence from Spain, mean for government bond and credit markets.

Also –would a …

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This week on BVTV

Join us on BVTV, where this week we discuss:

  1. Lower oil prices – less of a concern for risk appetite this time around;
  2. BoE: Keep calm and carry on expecting;
  3. Traditional drivers for EUR/USD have broken down –  more Euro strength to come?

Tune in for our thoughts on the stories making headlines this week.

 

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BVTV: Europe’s turn for positive surprises

The Eurovision song contest may be over for another year, but Europe’s capacity to surprise could well continue. Tune in to the latest edition of BVTV, where Anjulie Rusius joined me to discuss:

  1. European economic surprises on the rise vs a slowing US
  2. Bank of England Super Thursday: Dovish message but attempts at a hawkish tone
  3. How much is the ECB tightening its corporate bond purchase programm…

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This week on Bond Vigilantes TV

In this week’s edition:

  1. OPEC meeting: impact on bond markets and inflation
  2. EUR vs USD spread differential widening: is value returning to European credit?
  3. A busy week ahead for Europe: market reaction post-Italian referendum and ECB meeting

Tune in for the charts and articles that are making headlines in bond markets.

 

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The periphery-core financing gap has been gradually closing

SME financing in Europe – not out of the woods yet

In 2013 I blogged about how financing conditions had tightened aggressively for small and medium sized corporates (SMEs) in peripheral Europe. Three years later, we’ve seen the introduction of targeted longer-term refinancing operations, QE, negative deposit rates and other efforts towards creating a financially united, cohesive, European banking union. Now feels like a good time to revisit thi…

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Inflation expectations at lowest level in last three years – M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey Q4 2015

We recently blogged about the marked effect the collapse in commodity prices, particularly oil and energy, have had on global inflation rates across the world. Headline inflation rates in major western economies have been in, or have flirted with, deflation throughout the year in spite of ongoing economic growth and a steady recovery in labour markets.

An interesting issue is whether this, seem…

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M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey – Q3 2015

One of the key objectives of modern monetary policy is to anchor inflation expectations, because managing inflation expectations is the first step to managing inflation.

The extent to which inflation expectations are anchored can have direct implications for the performance of inflation and the broader economy.

Where inflation expectations are not very well anchored, falling (or rising) inflati…

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M&G Panoramic Outlook: The Case for Global Corporate Bond Investing

The euro’s 12-year low against the dollar is a mixed blessing for US companies. On the one hand, the US manufacturing sector is suffering from an uncompetitive currency and lower export revenues. But on the other, rock bottom European interest rates have given US companies an attractive opportunity to issue bonds denominated in euros and lock in cheap financing. For example, in the first quarte…

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