Beyond hard, soft and no Brexit

(Blog originally posted on www.bruegel.org)

Recent declarations by political leaders suggest that a hard Brexit is the most likely outcome of the negotiation between the European Union and the United Kingdom that will start next spring after the UK government triggers Article 50. In Britain, several cabinet members have made statements pointing in this direction. And in Brussels, Donald Tusk, p…

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Inflation Surprises – what’s driving the current increases in market- and survey-based indicators of inflation expectations?

(blog originally posted on www.bruegel.org)

Euro area consumer price inflation, as measured by the HICP, continues to undershoot the ECB’s target of “close to, but below 2%”, currently at -0.1% in March. While it is still too early to tell if the ECB QE programme launched on March 9 will manage to bring back inflation towards the target in the medium term, a look at market- and survey-based inf…

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