Author profile

Elena Moya

Bond Vigilantes Editor

Years in the bond markets: 10

Specialist subjects: Macro, Emerging Markets

Likes: Football, London tapas, good reads

Heroes: Janet Yellen, Don Quixote, Johan Cruyff

Panoramic Weekly: Ignoring Trump

Most global fixed income asset classes gained over the past five trading days, despite an escalation of the ongoing US-China trade war and the inclusion of new tariffs between the world’s two largest economies. Reduced trade, however, may bring more harm than good to the US economy, as levies usually generate inflation and, therefore, higher rates. Indeed, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yiel…

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Panoramic Weekly: 2008-2018: Don’t look back in anger

Few people would have guessed right after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, ten years ago this week, that a golden decade for bond investors laid ahead – but it has happened: as many as 92 of the 100 fixed income asset classes tracked by Panoramic Weekly have delivered positive returns, with 17 of them offering triple-digit returns. The 2008 crisis’ most-battered asset classes, such as High Yiel…

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Panoramic Weekly – EMs: How many one-offs to call it a crisis?

Global bond markets sank over the past five trading days, as what started being idiosyncratic problems in specific Emerging Markets (EMs) spread throughout the bond universe: only 14 of the 100 Fixed Income asset classes tracked by Panoramic Weekly posted positive total returns. The rest tumbled, mostly dragged down by the risk-off scenario (such as High Yield debt) or by exposure to rising rat…

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Panoramic Weekly: Keep calm and ‘gradually’ hike

After a turbulent start to the month, the second half of August has turned out to be a much calmer period for financial markets. While geopolitical tensions have not gone away, investor sentiment is currently being well-supported by the favourable economic outlook in the US, coupled with the prospect of a continued period of low interest rates. Global equity and credit markets produced further …

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Panoramic Weekly – Trump’s dollar: making European bonds great again

Most global Fixed Income asset classes rose over the past five trading days, led by recently-battered Southern European government bonds, which rallied on the back of gloomy news: the Eurozone’s trade surplus fell in June to its lowest level in 18 months as export growth didn’t keep up with rising imports. European sales abroad suffered from a rising euro, or a low US dollar – a position favour…

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Panoramic Weekly: Summer storm

An escalation of diplomatic tensions between the US and Turkey and Russia triggered a global fixed income sell-off that particularly hit Emerging Markets (EMs), and led to a safe-haven rush, with US Treasuries, Swiss and German bonds in heavy demand. The risk-off mode intensified towards the end of last week, when the Turkish lira plunged 18% in two days as a deadline for Turkey to release a US…

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Risk-off is on

Renewed political tensions between the US and Turkey and Russia increased uncertainty and led to a currency sell-off in both countries. Traditional safe-haven assets, such as US Treasuries and the yen, rose. Are these crises telling us anything about the state of the global economy?

What is happening and why?

The Turkish lira and the Russian ruble plunged recently, following an escalation of di…

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Panoramic Weekly – Trade war survivors: High Yield, FRNs

Despite a battery of central bank meetings, which left things more or less where they were – read: supportive of economic growth – global bond markets suffered from the ongoing trade wars, from rising oil prices and also as US data remained unconvincing, dragging down inflation expectations. Only about one quarter of the 100 fixed income asset classes followed by Panoramic Weekly posted positiv…

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Panoramic Weekly: EMs 1 – Trump 0

Despite US president Trump’s plans to build walls between countries and impose barriers to global trade, the asset class which was once seen as the most vulnerable to his policies not only has emerged victorious in July – but also since he won in Nov. 2016: Emerging Markets (EM) fill 9 of the 10 best-performing fixed income asset classes in July, as their improving fundamentals and recent sell-…

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Panoramic Weekly: Japan sneezes, markets get a cold

Speculation that Japan, traditionally a bastion of bond market stability, may shift its ultra-loose monetary policy pushed most developed market government yields higher over the past five trading days: higher rates in Japan may reduce demand for global assets as the billions of yen that fled the country’s negative-yielding monetary policy two years ago may now return home. The central bank’s d…

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