Looking back over the past year it’s evident that decent returns were much more difficult to achieve than in 2014. Within my sample of 85 different Bank of America Merrill Lynch bond indices (and as you can see from the smaller sample in the chart below) most indices fell within the -5% to 5% total return range for 2015, whereas most fell within the 5% to 15% range in 2014.
In 2014 though, mos… Read the article
This time last year many thought that duration management was going to be the key to success in 2014. Yields were expected to rise as the Fed weaned the market off QE and began to normalise rates. As a result, only the very brave would have been positioned long duration heading into 2014. To be positioned as such would presumably have taken some explaining, particularly when set against what se… Read the article
Oscar Wilde supposedly once said that ‘everything popular is wrong’. Well, the overwhelming consensus at the start of 2014 that bond markets were not a great place to be invested turned out to be very wrong indeed. The relentless march lower in bond yields, and thus strong performance from government bonds and investment grade (for example, sterling IG has returned more than 10% so far this yea… Read the article
Corporate bonds have had an incredible run over the past few years. A combination of sub-par growth, the sovereign crisis in Europe and massive amounts of QE on a global scale has driven government bond yields down to historically low levels. At the same time, corporate bond spreads have tightened significantly from the crazy levels we saw in 2009. This has meant double-digit annualised returns… Read the article
The answer was the Bank of England’s Inflation Report cost £4 when it was first published in 1993, and now costs £3, deflation of 25%.
Congratulations to the ten winners picked randomly:
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- Tim Cockram – Chetwood Wealth Management
- Simon Bird – Brewin Dolphin
- Alex Brandreth – Brown Shipley
- Robert Harper – Brewin Dolphin
- Ali Treharne – SFP Plymouth
- Mark Dobson – Charles Stanley
- R Knight – from A…
Ben and Mike attended a very informative recent lunch featuring two of the top bods at the UK’s Office for National Statistics and hosted by the excellent Alan Clarke (ex BNP Paribas UK economist, now at Scotia Bank). They thought that there could be a great opportunity to share Joe and Pam’s expertise on UK GDP and UK inflation with our blog readers so they phoned ahead and managed to locate… Read the article
Yesterday, Stefan and Mike gave a teleconference discussing our views on the eurozone debt crisis. They cover some very interesting issues, such as the relationship between current account deficits and sovereign defaults/crises, the ECB’s ‘underwhelming’ response to the current crisis and the implications for the financial sector of the strong link between sovereigns and banks, as well as what … Read the article
It’s been two and half years since our last visit to New York. As you can see in this latest video, the past few tumultuous years in the markets have not been kind to Jim, Richard and Stefan. Earlier this week they visited New York, meeting with a number of economists and strategists, where talk was dominated by developments in Europe. In this latest video update, you can hear the Team’s views … Read the article
Yesterday Jim blogged that M&G was launching two new innovative corporate bond funds – the M&G UK Inflation Linked Corporate Bond Fund and the M&G European Inflation Linked Corporate Bond Fund. For those that are interested in hearing further details about the funds straight from the horse’s mouth, click here for a short video interview Jim did yesterday with Charlie Parker from Citywire.
… Read the article
In last week’s Pre-Budget report, UK Chancellor Alistair Darling announced that gilt issuance for the current financial year would total £225.1bn – a shocking and record figure, although not far off the £220bn that was originally planned in this year’s Budget. But while on one side we’ve had this huge volume of supply from the DMO, we’ve also had the unusual situation of the BoE busily mopping … Read the article