Japan research trip: how will the Bank of Japan exit YCC?

Guest contributor – Jean-Paul Jaegers, CFA, CQF (Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)

Recently Jim Leaviss and I travelled to Tokyo to discuss local economic developments and Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy with economists and analysts based in Tokyo.

There was generally broad agreement that the potential path for Japanese government bond yields (JGBs) is asymmetric. …

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A quantitative analysis of US recession probabilities

Guest contributor – Jean-Paul Jaegers CFA (Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)

Getting a sense of when recessions are about to happen is a near impossible task, as evidenced by official institutions that often fail to forecast recessions, and organisations like the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) that specialises in dating US business cycles, dating …

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Posted under US

Why seasonality in consumer prices matters for bond markets

Guest contributor – Jean-Paul Jaegers CFA (Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)

One asset class where seasonality matters hugely is inflation linked fixed income. This makes a lot of sense, as inflation is the underlying macro variable, and inflation by its nature is very seasonal. For example, post Halloween sales or Holiday packages tend to happen in regular pe…

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