Author profile
Jim Leaviss
Years in the bond markets: 23
Specialist subjects: Macro economics and fixed interest asset allocation
Likes: Cycling, factory records, dim sum
Heroes: Brian Clough, Morrissey, Neil Armstrong
“Unelected Power” by former BoE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker. Our interview, and chance to win his book!
Former Bank of England Deputy Governor Paul Tucker has written a book about accountability and central banking. Have central banks become “overmighty citizens”, with too much power and insufficient democratic input? If so, does it matter and what can we do about it? In an era of QE, and bailouts of commercial banks, wealth inequality has widened in most developed economies. Did society agr…
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Does the U.S. yield curve predict wider credit spreads? Also, goodbye to Hamish Watson
As the U.S. yield curve flattened to just 45 bps (2s-10s) last week, we dug out something I wrote back in 2007, in the early days of this blog. A chart that accompanied the blog showed that a) U.S. BBB credit spreads had hit their tightest level for nearly 3 decades and b) that the yield curve had flattened substantially (and in fact inverted). If you pushed the yield curve shape chart 18 mon…
Read the articleDavos 2018: M&G’s CEO Anne Richards talks to Jim Leaviss. Are markets headed towards another financial crisis?
This year’s Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) comes at a time where equity and credit valuations look high, where we have “obvious” bubbles in cryptocurrencies, and where bond yields – perhaps an anchor for all financial asset valuations – finally seem to be moving higher. Global borrowing across governments, financial institutions, companies and households is at record levels. Can the global …
Watch VideoM&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2017 – the answers and the new champion
Happy New Year to you all. Thank you for another bumper crop of entries for our Christmas quiz. This year’s winner and new reigning champion is Adam Begg of UBS Investment Bank. Many congratulations. As you know, this year we donated £500 to Cancer Research UK in lieu of a trophy. Via CASCAID, the fund management community in the UK this year decided to try to raise £1 million for Cancer R…
Read the article2018 outlook from M&G’s fixed income and multi-asset teams
Here’s a short video I recorded with my multi-asset colleagues Steven Andrew and Tristan Hanson, in which we debate the highlights of 2017 and look ahead to 2018. After a year that has turned out to hold fewer surprises than many might have expected, what lies in store for financial markets in the coming 12 months?
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The M&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2017
Here is the 11th annual Christmas Quiz. 20 questions, and the closing date for entries is midday on Friday 22nd December. Please email your answers to us at bondteam@bondvigilantes.co.uk. The winner will get glory, and in lieu of a golden trophy, M&G has donated £500 to Cancer Research UK, through CASCAID. CASCAID is the UK asset management industry’s effort to raise £2 million for this bri…
Read the articleEn route to Kilkenomics: a Bond Vigilantes and Episode Blog brainstorming video
I made what is turning into an annual pilgrimage to the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland, last weekend, this time along with Eric Lonergan and Tristan Hanson from M&G’s multi-asset fund management team.
En route, we met some clients in Dublin and then took the opportunity to set the world to rights over a pint or two in legendary pub Kehoes. In these three short videos, we sh…
Watch the videosOne year, one hundred climbs. Thanks everyone. CASCAID is well on its way to raising £2 million for Cancer Research UK.
I did it! On 12th November I rode up the 100th and final hill of my challenge, Cheddar Gorge in Somerset.
The UK asset management industry has now raised nearly £2 million over the course of this year through CASCAID. All this money will be going directly to Cancer Research UK. The target was £1 million, so a huge thanks to all those who have donated to the huge variety of different events…
Read the articleTrump should reappoint Yellen. Also: credit spreads are tight, Tesla, Laffer’s napkin and other stuff.
- The Fed Chair choice should be obvious for Trump. Yellen all the way. I don’t understand why he would choose Taylor.
President Trump is likely to announce his choice for the next Fed Chair by the end of this month. Whilst current Chair Janet Yellen is still in the running, she has been slipping down the betting over the past few weeks. There are three good reasons why (from his perspectiv…
Read the articleMexico: a primer. Elections, inflation, the Bank of Mexico, NAFTA and gasoline
I’m just back from a fascinating research trip to Mexico City, to meet with policymakers, bankers, politicians, analysts, pension funds and regulators. Like many emerging market economies, the Mexican economy has suffered over the past couple of years due to lower commodity prices and weak global demand for goods. Of course, Mexico has had its own unique challenge with Donald Trump’s election…
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