Author profile

Jim Leaviss

Years in the bond markets: 22

Specialist subjects: Macro economics and fixed interest asset allocation

Likes: Cycling, factory records, dim sum

Heroes: Brian Clough, Morrissey, Neil Armstrong

“Venetians, Volcker and Value-at-Risk: 8 centuries of bond market reversals”. Our interview with Bank Underground’s Paul Schmelzing.

It’s rare to find a piece of writing that EVERYONE in bond markets has read and is talking about, but in January, a blog by Paul Schmelzing on the Bank of England’s excellent Bank Underground site did just that.  Paul is a visiting scholar from Harvard University, working at the Bank of England to research foreign exchange policy in the era of Bretton Woods.  In the blog however he took a very …

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A dozen things I’m finding interesting in bond markets. Includes weasels.

1. On the face of it, long term US Treasury yields are looking fair value, having traded on the dear side since the middle of 2014.  Below is a chart you will have seen before on the blog as I’ve been using it for some time.  It shows the relationship between the Fed’s long term expectations of short term interest rates (taken, with a pinch of salt, from the FOMC’s dot plots) and the bond marke…

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M&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2016 – the answers and the new champion

Before we get to the main event, I’d like to thank everybody who has made a donation to Cancer Research UK as a result of our 10th birthday celebrations.  We are over the £10,000 mark now. We still have one box of our second Bond Vigilantes book left.  If you’d like a copy, send your name and address to us at bondteam@bondvigilantes.co.uk and we will send them out on a first come, first served …

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M&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2016

Here is the 10th annual Christmas Quiz.  20 questions, and the closing date for entries is midday on Friday 23rd December.  Please email your answers to us at bondteam@bondvigilantes.co.uk.  The winner will get glory, and can choose a charity from our approved list to which we will donate £100.  She or he will also get a copy of the new Bond Vigilantes book, called “Bond Vigilantes – Part II”. …

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The Irish economy: a Bond Vigilantes quick video update

Last weekend we were at the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland.  Whilst we were there (and it’s a fantastic town) we filmed this short video.  In the wake of the Trump election victory there’s a mini-panic going on in Ireland, not least because, in common with Mexico, there are many undocumented Irish in the US whose future has become uncertain.  There’s also the huge issue of …

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10 years of the M&G Bond Vigilantes blog. A new book and fundraising for Cancer Research UK.

Today is the 10th anniversary of the Bond Vigilantes blog.  Here’s a look back at the incredible changes to bond markets and monetary policy that we’ve been through over that decade.  Also today we are launching our new book (the difficult second album) in support of Cancer Research UK.  There’s a link to our Just Giving page at the bottom if you like what we do and can spare a few quid.

My fi…

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Bond market reaction to Trump’s election victory

As Donald Trump delivers his victory speech, and is set to become America’s 45th President, here’s a quick update on what we’re seeing in bond and currency markets since you went to bed.  For bonds, the impact has so far been relatively modest; it’s been equity markets where moves have been stronger (the Nikkei is down 5%).  Last night the Mexican peso was the barometer of the likely outcome, a…

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“The Wealth of Humans” by Ryan Avent. Our interview with the author and a chance to win his book.

Earlier this year we interviewed both Robert Gordon (here) and Martin Ford (here) about their books examining the impact of technology on the modern economy.  In the latest of our author interviews I talked to the Economist’s senior editor and economics columnist Ryan Avent about his new book, “The Wealth of Humans”, that develops this same theme.  In particular he looks at how we will be able …

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