Author profile

Jim Leaviss

Years in the bond markets: 24

Specialist subjects: Macro economics and fixed interest asset allocation

Likes: Cycling, factory records, dim sum

Heroes: Brian Clough, Morrissey, Neil Armstrong

M&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2016

Here is the 10th annual Christmas Quiz.  20 questions, and the closing date for entries is midday on Friday 23rd December.  Please email your answers to us at bondteam@bondvigilantes.co.uk.  The winner will get glory, and can choose a charity from our approved list to which we will donate £100.  She or he will also get a copy of the new Bond Vigilantes book, called “Bond Vigilantes – Part II”. …

Read the article

The Irish economy: a Bond Vigilantes quick video update

Last weekend we were at the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland.  Whilst we were there (and it’s a fantastic town) we filmed this short video.  In the wake of the Trump election victory there’s a mini-panic going on in Ireland, not least because, in common with Mexico, there are many undocumented Irish in the US whose future has become uncertain.  There’s also the huge issue of …

Watch the video

10 years of the M&G Bond Vigilantes blog. A new book and fundraising for Cancer Research UK.

Today is the 10th anniversary of the Bond Vigilantes blog.  Here’s a look back at the incredible changes to bond markets and monetary policy that we’ve been through over that decade.  Also today we are launching our new book (the difficult second album) in support of Cancer Research UK.  There’s a link to our Just Giving page at the bottom if you like what we do and can spare a few quid.

My fi…

Read the article

Bond market reaction to Trump’s election victory

As Donald Trump delivers his victory speech, and is set to become America’s 45th President, here’s a quick update on what we’re seeing in bond and currency markets since you went to bed.  For bonds, the impact has so far been relatively modest; it’s been equity markets where moves have been stronger (the Nikkei is down 5%).  Last night the Mexican peso was the barometer of the likely outcome, a…

Read the article

“The Wealth of Humans” by Ryan Avent. Our interview with the author and a chance to win his book.

Earlier this year we interviewed both Robert Gordon (here) and Martin Ford (here) about their books examining the impact of technology on the modern economy.  In the latest of our author interviews I talked to the Economist’s senior editor and economics columnist Ryan Avent about his new book, “The Wealth of Humans”, that develops this same theme.  In particular he looks at how we will be able …

Read the article

Either the demographic bond models are broken, or yields are headed to 10%.

For fixed income fund managers it was once the case that if you understood the evolution of the relative sizes of the various cohorts of the young, the working, and the retired in a population, you could predict bond returns.  Lots of workers relative to the “unproductive” young or elderly meant low wage pressures, lots of demand for savings assets such as bonds, and lower government borrowing….

Read the article

Should the Bank of England start buying sterling corporate bonds again?

When the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets next week, the market expects that they will cut rates, especially now that even outgoing hawk, Martin Weale (who has been at the Bank for 71 meetings so far, and voted to hike 12 times, and to hold 59 times) says that he will support a reduction.  A resumption of the Funding for Lending (FLS) scheme is also a possibility (many economis…

Read the article

Bond market reaction to UK “Leave” vote

The UK has voted to “Leave” the EU.  We’re seeing some significant moves in fixed income assets first thing this morning as financial markets had very much discounted a “Remain” outcome, in line with the last opinion polls and in particular the betting markets which had heavily backed that outcome.  The biggest market movements though have occurred in the FX markets where the pound fell from ne…

Read the article