Author profile
Matthew Russell
Years in the bond markets: 15
Specialist subjects: Emerging markets and corporate bonds
Likes: Travelling, gym, reading & pool parties
Heroes: John Nash, John Stuart Mill, Ari Gold
Bank of England: is it right to raise rates?
Few eyebrows were raised after the Bank of England raised rates: the last time unemployment was this low, the City of London was full of bowler hats – fund manager Matthew Russell says from the Bank of England.
Don´t miss Matthew´s blog: BofE – The unreliable boyfriend finally comes through with the chocolates
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BofE: The unreliable boyfriend finally comes through with the chocolates
The Bank of England unanimously raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% – are gilts still an attractive investment opportunity? Are rising rates the main challenge to UK government and corporate bonds? Has Brexit risk been priced in?
Is the Bank of England right to raise rates?
The unreliable boyfriend finally came through with the chocolates – after months of going back …
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Clouds in the Valley – Dispatches from a tech conference
I was recently in San Francisco for an internet and technology conference. An array of senior tech managers spoke about their firms’ prospects, priorities and where they see opportunities. Twitter’s Jack Dorsey aside, the overwhelming focus of every session I attended over the three days was cloud computing.
Cloud computing is essentially the move away from users buying, owning and maintaining …
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Where is UK growth going to come from? Our take on the IFS Green Budget
The IFS (Institute for Fiscal Studies) Green Budget hit the headlines last week with its forecast that, over the course of this parliament, the UK tax burden is set to rise to its highest level in 30 years. The IFS has calculated that by 2020 the proportion of national income raised through taxes will increase to 37%.
I was at the presentation, and the more concerning issue for me was the rathe…
Read the articleThree reasons we like UK residential mortgage backed securities
The residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) market has had a good run of late, so is the sector still good value and is there room for it to rally further?
The short answer: Yes.
The longer answer: There are a number of factors that should prove supportive for RMBS going forward, a few of which are discussed below.
- Structure
The Big Short has been available on Netflix for a couple of m…
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What makes a good forecaster? Superforecasting – a book review
I spent a significant chunk of the weekend with my head buried in a great book; Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction. In this book, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner tell the story of Tetlock’s experiments in harnessing the wisdom of crowds to predict the direction of geopolitical and economic events. Tetlock, a renowned social scientist, and his global band of volunteer forecasters…
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How severe is the current energy sector default cycle?
To date the defaults we’ve seen in the US high yield market have largely occurred in the energy/commodity sectors. To see whether this trend is likely to persist I spent some time comparing the current default cycle with that of the US telco sector in the early 2000’s (see also James’ recent blog for the parallels between today’s high yield market and that of 2001).
The telco bust occurred slig…
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Tough as Granite – an RMBS case study
This weekend the team were doing more than just our Christmas shopping, we were also saying a fond farewell to one of our favourite investments of recent times – our Granite Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS).
Granite was the name that Northern Rock gave to the vehicle it used to securitise the mortgages that it originated before blowing up in 2007 – when it was no longer able to fun…
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IMF/World Bank Autumn meeting notes
Recently Claudia and I were in Lima for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. Unsurprisingly (given the host nation and history of the meetings) the majority of sessions were on the developing world, in particular Latin America. Claudia will shortly be posting a series of more detailed blogs on the LATAM countries she visited, so I’ll focus more globally.
In aggregate, the IMF is predi…
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Contrary to popular opinion, the Bank of England’s next move will be a monetary easing
On the 7th of September £38bn worth of UK gilts (4.75% 2015) will mature. The Bank of England (BoE) own just under half the issue, having purchased the bonds through its £375bn quantitative easing (QE) programme. At this point in time, the BoE have indicated that they are committed to keeping the size of the QE program at £375bn. As a result of the 2015 bonds maturing, the bank will therefore h…
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