Whilst you can make some strong arguments for the negative returns from 90% of asset classes in 2018 based on the return of populist politics – think of Brexit, Italy’s political instability, AMLO’s election in Mexico and tariffs everywhere – the answer to those negative returns might be simpler: the de facto global discount rate, the 2-year US Treasury bond yield, has risen by almost 100 basis…
Read the articleMany investors will be willing to see 2018 end soon, given the recent market sell-off. But are asset prices truly reflecting the underlying economic fundamentals? Click here to watch M&G Investment Director Laura Frost challenge some of the present market assumptions.
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Global bond markets rallied over the past five trading days as plunging oil prices, weak US data and disappointment over the real impact of a 90-day trade truce between the US and China led to a sharp flattening of the US yield curve, which is now only 12 basis points from inversion. The flattening intensified after US President Trump toned down his recent comments about the US-China trade agre…
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The positive and negative effects of central bank intervention after the 2007-08 financial crisis have been widely debated and are still – ten years on – not fully understood. For example, keeping borrowing costs artificially low for years has certainly helped spur economic growth (great), but by incentivising companies to take on more debt (not so great). The debt increase also makes me questi…
Read the articleAlmost one year after the first 2018 BVTV episode, M&G Investment Specialist Mario Eisenegger and Fund Manager Wolfgang Bauer meet again to review Wolfgang’s market predictions for this year – watch this short video to find out which ones were right, and which one was painfully wrong.
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If investors enjoyed a dream Goldilocks scenario in 2017 in which growth was hot enough to lift earnings but not too much to warrant sharp rate hikes, many expected 2018 to be more like the year of the bear, marked by a significant rate hiking cycle – until last week. US Fed chair Jerome Powell said the current policy rate is just below the non-accelerating rate of inflation – a sign that the …
Read the articleBlack Friday and Cyber Monday have changed consumer habits around the world. But it is not only consumers seeking bargains – value investors are also on the hunt following the recent market sell-off. Watch M&G credit analyst Stephen Wilson-Smith and Investment Specialist Carlo Putti discuss how recent volatility may have created investment opportunities.
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November is proving to be even worse than October, especially for Credit markets, amid plunging oil prices, corporate woes, executive scandals and protracted unconvincing economic data, all on top of a global interest rate rising cycle. Corporate bonds, which have been supported by loose monetary policy for over a decade, particularly felt the cold: US Investment Grade (IG) spreads last week po…
Read the articleBrexit caused a sharp decline in the value of the pound last week and has significantly increased expectations of higher inflation. The next few days could bring further moves – watch M&G fund manager Ben Lord discuss the potential scenarios and outcomes with Bond Vigilantes Editor Elena Moya.
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