Prices of most global corporate bonds rose over the past five trading days, as above-expectations US economic data fuelled the dollar, took US equities to new heights, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed its US growth prospects while cutting those for the Eurozone, Britain and Japan. The risk-on optimism left behind Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign debt, hit by the protracted US-…
Read the articleLast time I was on BVTV, we touched on how Apple’s market cap is rapidly approaching that of all Europe’s banks combined, prompting me to focus in on the tech sector today, as I try to answer some of the questions that we are most frequently asked by clients. In particular, what are the similarities and differences between 2000 and 2018, and why is momentum (aka hope) currently winning out in t…
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Traditional fixed income risk assets, such as Emerging Markets (EM) and High Yield (HY), rallied over the past five trading days, shrugging off an escalation of the trade tensions between the US and China. The world’s No. 1 economy announced plans to set tariffs on an additional US$200bn worth of Chinese goods, adding to the $34bn that came into effect on Friday. The almost 200-page list of goo…
Read the articleWhile emerging market bonds have notably underperformed in the year-to-date period, Fund Manager Claudia Calich believes the longer-term fundamental case for the asset class remains intact. The outlook for broad-based global economic growth is still in place, for example, which should help fiscal improvements and deleveraging in emerging countries. In this Bond Vigilantes video, Claudia also no…
Watch the videoToys R Us and House of Fraser are some of the high street names that have faced tough competition from online retailers in recent years. Is the bricks & mortar model passé? Are some industries more resilient than others? And what does this mean for investors? Watch M&G’s Stephen Wilson-Smith explain how a French beauty giant sells more products online than in Latin America and how a US ice-crea…
Watch the videoAs we have now reached the halfway point of 2018, it seems like a good occasion to take stock and see whether the year has lived up to consensus expectations so far. With more news surprises and volatility so far than in 2017, how do the market’s predictions for which asset classes would perform best look today? Watch the latest episode of BVTV as I review year-to-date returns and look at why t…
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Last week the European Investment Bank (EIB) issued the first public bond based on the reformed SONIA benchmark, marking another step forward in the process of benchmark reform in the U.K. The 5-year, £1bn issue was priced with a coupon of 35bp above overnight SONIA. The deal may very well serve as a benchmark for future issuance in the LIBOR-less world which the Bank of England and other regu…
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German government bonds have gone from strength to strength in recent times; much like the German team at the World Cup – I wish! But is the latest Bund rally sustainable? I think not.
Let’s start with the bull case. In a recent blog, I described how Bunds had provided an efficient hedge against surging political uncertainty in Italy, due to the negative correlation between yields on German and…
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Bahrain spreads have widened in recent months, despite the rise in oil prices. The market is focusing on the $750 million Bahrain Sukuk maturing on November 22, 2018. Given that the country’s international reserves are estimated at around $2.1 billion, the country will need additional funding to repay it. The market consensus is that Bahrain will receive financial support from neighbouring Sau…
Read the articleWe have already seen several corrections in credit markets so far this year, providing a good opportunity to analyse these episodes from a volatility perspective to see whether they have created good entry points into previously expensive markets. Finding a good entry point is just the first step though. Next, we must consider whether cash bonds, or CDS, look more attractive.
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