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US & UK Inflation: Goldilocks and the bear?

After a decade dominated by extraordinary monetary stimulus that has kept interest rates and consumer prices at bay, the dog that didn’t bark is finally showing signs of life: inflation. As seen on the chart, both US and UK wage inflation have spiked in a tightening labour market – an old textbook recipe for further price increases to come. However, one has to look beyond the headlines to depic…

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Letter from Washington DC. The IMF’s Sovereign Debt Conference.

The IMF recently held a two-day public conference on sovereign debt at its home in Washington DC. How do we measure it? How have governments reduced it in the past, for example in the periods after the two World Wars? How can Japan carry debts of over 200% of GDP while other sovereigns have defaulted with virtually no public debt? And when things do go wrong, how do we sort out the mess of a re…

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Panoramic Weekly: Ignoring Trump

Most global fixed income asset classes gained over the past five trading days, despite an escalation of the ongoing US-China trade war and the inclusion of new tariffs between the world’s two largest economies. Reduced trade, however, may bring more harm than good to the US economy, as levies usually generate inflation and, therefore, higher rates. Indeed, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yiel…

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Brazil’s election: What’s at stake?

Global investors are paying special attention to the forthcoming general election in Brazil, not only because the country is the world’s eighth-largest economy, ahead of Italy and Canada, but also because in these turbulent times for Emerging Markets (EMs), an unexpected or market-unfriendly outcome could bring more volatility to the entire asset class. After the recent sell-offs in Turkey and …

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BVTV: 10 years after Lehman, still holding on?

Last Saturday marked exactly 10 years since Lehman Brothers went bust. Are we still suffering the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis that followed? Had the crisis not occurred, would we have today’s political uncertainty? Watch M&G fund manager Wolfgang Bauer and Investment Director Ana Gil discuss how the clash between growth and political risk are driving markets today, and what oppo…

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Panoramic Weekly: 2008-2018: Don’t look back in anger

Few people would have guessed right after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, ten years ago this week, that a golden decade for bond investors laid ahead – but it has happened: as many as 92 of the 100 fixed income asset classes tracked by Panoramic Weekly have delivered positive returns, with 17 of them offering triple-digit returns. The 2008 crisis’ most-battered asset classes, such as High Yiel…

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BVTV: Are Europe’s credit markets reflecting Italy’s budget woes?

While investors and the world media focus on Emerging Markets such as Turkey, Brazil and Argentina, Italy’s borrowing costs have been rising to levels not seen since the European sovereign debt crisis. Is this 2011 again? Are Europe’s credit markets reflecting the tensions between Rome and Brussels officials over the country’s deficit? Watch some insights from M&G investment specialist Pilar Ar…

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Panoramic Weekly – EMs: How many one-offs to call it a crisis?

Global bond markets sank over the past five trading days, as what started being idiosyncratic problems in specific Emerging Markets (EMs) spread throughout the bond universe: only 14 of the 100 Fixed Income asset classes tracked by Panoramic Weekly posted positive total returns. The rest tumbled, mostly dragged down by the risk-off scenario (such as High Yield debt) or by exposure to rising rat…

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BVTV: Where has all the volatility gone?

Volatility in the US Treasury market has broken records this summer, reaching lows not seen since the 1960s. This can’t just be attributed to the summer lull, so what has been going on?  In this morning’s episode of BVTV I look at the opposing forces that have been at work, and examine what influence these have had on the US dollar. Inevitably, most answers lead back to president Trump.

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Panoramic Weekly: Keep calm and ‘gradually’ hike

After a turbulent start to the month, the second half of August has turned out to be a much calmer period for financial markets. While geopolitical tensions have not gone away, investor sentiment is currently being well-supported by the favourable economic outlook in the US, coupled with the prospect of a continued period of low interest rates. Global equity and credit markets produced further …

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