Tag Archives:

recession

What is the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months?

Knowing how poor the central banks have been at forecasting economic indicators, and having analysed the IMF’s wild forecasts, we think that it makes sense to take consensus views with a large grain of salt. However, there is a substantial body of empirical evidence that has emerged since the 1980s that suggests that the bond market is a pretty good predictor of real economic activity.

It has b…

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If this is part 2 of the Great Recession, what were the 10 recent policy errors that got us here?

When it was all academic, I enjoyed reading about the causes of the Wall Street Crash, the Great Depression and the German hyper-inflation.  Policy errors abounded. The UK going back on to the Gold Standard in the middle of the crisis and sending the economy down in to a deflationary spiral.  Andrew Mellon, US Treasury Secretary, saying “liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liq…

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The US is headed for recession – if 63 years of economic data are any guide to the future

Think the US is out of the woods now that congress has come to an agreement on the debt ceiling? Not according to this chart from Rich Yamarone, an economist at Bloomberg. It’s called the “2 percent rule”. When US GDP falls below 2%, it usually means the world’s largest economy is headed for a recession.

Last week, we received confirmation that US GDP was just 1.6% in Q2 2011. Combined with ye…

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A Nobel aim – to find the right match and reduce the poison of long term unemployment

Hi everyone, I’m the new guy onboard. I started at M&G last week but the rest of the team is already working really hard to find me a ridiculous nickname.

Yesterday morning, I saw a familiar face in the news. My macroeconomics professor at LSE, Christopher Pissarides, had just won the Nobel Prize in economic sciences (jointly with Dale Mortensen and Peter Diamond). On top of being an exceptiona…

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A letter from Ireland to M&G’s Bond Vigilantes

Dear Bond Vigilantes,

The small nation of Ireland has received more than its fair share of press since the credit crunch started three years ago. The financial crisis has not been kind to the Irish economy, with the collapse of the Irish property bubble having a profound impact on citizen’s net wealth and psyche. In fact, Ireland was the first country in the EU to officially enter recession. As…

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Alistair Darling – a Chancellor who will go down in history (in a good way); and was Margaret Thatcher really a public sector axewoman?

Now that the new UK government is bedding in and getting ready to unleash austerity upon us, I thought I’d quickly look back at the last Labour government and tell you something that you won’t want to hear: the last Chancellor Alistair Darling did a very good job.

There were three significant tests given to him during his 3 year Chancellorship.  Of those, I think that two were passed with flyin…

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Unemployment likely to rise for many months to come – Central Banks firmly on hold, perhaps for over a year

With sovereign and political issues taking centre stage in markets recently, macroeconomic indicators have taken a back-seat in many market participants’ minds. But how have the advanced economies been recovering, absent these risks? Today I’d like to focus on some research on labour markets that was recently published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in their World Economic Outlook and…

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UK unemployment lowest since the 1970s – watch it rise

The government’s official unemployment rate (which looks just at the number of people claiming benefits) stands at 2.5%, the lowest rate since 1975. The UK unemployment rate under the International Labour Organisation’s measure stands at a slightly more realistic 5.2%, which is higher that 2003-06, but still way below the long term historical average.

A widely held view is that the UK economy w…

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US housing downturn worst since Great Depression – and getting worse

Investors are almost becoming blasé to dire US housing market data releases, but the reality is that things are getting worse and worse.

The monthly S&P/Case-Shiller figures that came out on Tuesday showed that the US housing market downturn is now more severe than the one that led to the US recession in 1991. As the chart shows (click the chart to enlarge), the S&P/Case-Shiller Index Composit…

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