So some panic buying of petrol in March saw UK retail sales grow 1.8% from February and almost certainly means that the first quarter of 2012 will see positive GDP growth. As the final quarter of 2011 was negative for…
Tag Archives: inflation
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Sterling’s strength is hard to explain – but it poses big risks for the UK economy in 2012. Equivalent to a 1.8% rate hike?
- Topics
- quantitative easing, UK
Posted April 23rd, 2012
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Inflation remains a hot topic here in the UK. The latest numbers out last week showed CPI had risen by 5% over the year. This is only 3% above the Bank of England’s target rate. If inflation remains at this…
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Ben and Mike attended a very informative recent lunch featuring two of the top bods at the UK’s Office for National Statistics and hosted by the excellent Alan Clarke (ex BNP Paribas UK economist, now at Scotia Bank). They thought…
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Travelling through Switzerland I can’t help but think that politicians both here and in the UK have a lot to thank their predecessors/electorates for. The relative safe-haven status enjoyed by both economies reflects, at least in part, the arm’s length…
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Pickled Onion Monster Munch – without looking, how many monster feet do you get in a packet?
- Topics
- inflation
Posted October 21st, 2011
Earlier this month the Nobel Prize for Economics went to Sargent and Sims for their work on cause and effect in macro economic policy. All good stuff of course, but it pains us that nobody is looking at the more…
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On Tuesday we hosted a conference to discuss the longer term outlook for inflation. Our guest speakers were Adam Fergusson, the author of the brilliant book “When Money Dies” about the Weimar Germany hyper-inflation, Andrew Sentance, the famously hawkish former…
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UK CPI inflation jumped from 4.0% to 4.5%, versus expectations of only a slight increase to 4.1%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, soared from 3.2% to 3.7% and is now at easily a record high (data…
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Following on from last week’s ECB press conference, on Wednesday this week we had the quarterly Bank of England Inflation Report. Amongst the questions asked at the press conference were a couple on the serious issue of the stability and…
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Recently, we have often spoken about QE, and how it could result in the demise of the bond vigilante (topsy turvy), and the birth of the currency vigilante. Well, we are getting very close to the presumed launch of further…
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Beware the doom and gloom merchants on euro unemployment
- Topics
- Europe, unemployment
Posted October 29th, 2010
The euro area unemployment rate rose to 10.1% today, a level not seen since July 1998. But does the market place too much emphasis on this number? Of course it is always important to keep a close eye on unemployment…
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