Recently, we have often spoken about QE, and how it could result in the demise of the bond vigilante (topsy turvy), and the birth of the currency vigilante. Well, we are getting very close to the presumed launch of further…
Tag Archives: Japan
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Well sort of. It hasn’t got a lot of attention in the bond markets, but this week both Jon Hilsenrath in the WSJ, and subsequently Paul Krugman in the NYT have revisited Ben Bernanke’s paper Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case…
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Turning Japanese I Think We’re Turning Japanese I Really Think So (follow up)
- Topics
- government bonds
Posted August 6th, 2010
There is only one explanation for why 2 year US Treasury yields broke below 0.5% today (an all time low), or why 10 year government bond yields in Germany and the US are currently 2.5% and 2.9% respectively. Or, for…
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The year is 2020, and the world is about to get hit by the next financial tsunami…(+ **competition time**)
- Topics
- AAA rated, quantitative easing
Posted November 2nd, 2009
The year is 2020, and at the centre of the financial tsunami is Japan. Another decade of very low single digit growth has meant that debt to GDP has steadily climbed from 200% in 2010 to 300%, which is considerably…
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Does deflation always result in a low and flat yield curve?
- Topics
- deflation, quantitative easing
Posted September 25th, 2009
We’ve had a huge rally in risky assets since we wrote a comment about Turning Japanese almost a year ago, and while diminished, the risk of a ‘lost decade’ is still very real. I thought it would be worth another…
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This is a question that numerous clients and members of the press have asked us so I thought it would be worth writing a brief comment here. Focusing on the UK, in yesterday’s budget, chancellor Alistair Darling said that gross…
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Japanese economy booming? Perhaps not, because it’s a leap year
- Topics
- global economy, recovery
Posted May 19th, 2008
Figures announced on Friday showed that Japan’s economy grew at a headline-grabbing annualised rate of 3.3% in the first quarter of this year, way ahead of expectations of 2.5%. Commentators have focused on strong export growth, although one reason for…
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The chain of events that led to the Great Depression were extremely similar to the ones that led to the ‘lost decade’ in Japan. Firstly loose monetary and fiscal policy led to real estate and stock market bubbles. Then the…
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