It was announced this morning that the UK economy grew just +0.5% in 2011, a downward revision from +0.7% previously announced. As the chart below from Citi illustrates, the UK economy has stalled. UK real GDP is 4.1% below its…
Tag Archives: UK
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UK economic recovery worse than Great Depression, and no sign of improving
- Topics
- economic factors, UK
Posted March 28th, 2012
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Happy Hogmanay – would an independent Scotland still be rated AAA? And might the rest of the UK get downgraded too?
- Topics
- credit rating, UK
Posted January 4th, 2012
Happy Hogmanay – an independent Scotland looks AAA on the back of an envelope (as long as it gets all of the oil and none of the banks!), but would probably get rated lower. UK to get downgraded on uncertainty?…
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Desert Island Discs – what the bond team will be taking to the BBC radio studios, should we get the nod.
- Topics
- UK
Posted December 21st, 2011
Without further comment, we give you the eight songs that each of the team would take to a desert island. In keeping with the spirit of the radio show, we have also given them the Complete Works of the Smiths,…
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Inflation remains a hot topic here in the UK. The latest numbers out last week showed CPI had risen by 5% over the year. This is only 3% above the Bank of England’s target rate. If inflation remains at this…
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Ben and Mike attended a very informative recent lunch featuring two of the top bods at the UK’s Office for National Statistics and hosted by the excellent Alan Clarke (ex BNP Paribas UK economist, now at Scotia Bank). They thought…
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Today’s FT launches on the significant headline of record low gilt yields (see here). Within the article it discusses a number of issues from quantitative easing to Bill Gross’ famous quote regarding the UK “resting on a bed of nitroglycerine”…
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Will the Debt Management Office redeem War Loan?
- Topics
- government bonds, UK
Posted November 1st, 2011
We’ve written about War Loan before – it’s a really interesting gilt, and not only because of its history – it was issued during World War 1 with the 1917 advert stating “if you cannot fight, invest all you can…
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Rating agencies adding to UK banks funding problems
- Topics
- banking, credit rating
Posted October 14th, 2011
We heard yesterday that Fitch has followed Moody’s lead and begun downgrading UK banks’ credit ratings. This reflects the reduced level of support offered by the government. Fitch only actually downgraded Lloyds and RBS – both to A – but…
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The currency vigilantes – putting theory into practice
- Topics
- quantitative easing, UK
Posted October 21st, 2010
Richard has written over the last couple of weeks about how QE is turning the world topsy turvy with potentially the higher inflation economies experiencing the lowest bond yields, how central banks and their printing presses are killing the bond…
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It is the time of year when the geese begin their long flight south to avoid the hellish northern European climate. In markets we are always on the look out for flocking and herd mentality. Sometimes as an investor you…
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