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BVTV: Investors, the highs and lows of investing

Tobacco and drinks companies used to be considered very stable, almost quiet industries. Industry players sold products that had no substitutes, and investors would not have to be too worried about negative earnings surprises. That picture seems to have changed now, with new products gaining popularity in the tobacco world and the recent legalisation of cannabis in Canada shaking things up in t…

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Panoramic Weekly: Bonds take a bath

The bond sell-off that started last week with the publication of strong US data continued over the past five trading days, even if Friday’s job report came in below expectations and a slew of global data and events only confirmed a worsening momentum: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut this year’s world economic growth forecast to 3.7%, down from 3.9%, citing challenges to trade; Italian…

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BVTV: Recession or growth ahead?

Sovereign bond markets sold off last week, following strong US data. However, Friday’s US jobs report showed that hiring cooled down in September more than expected – a point that markets seemed to ignore as Treasuries continued to sell off. Is it a growing US economy that we have ahead? Or should we expect growth to be challenged by higher rates and rising oil prices? Watch M&G’s portfolio man…

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US long rates: is the giant anaconda about to turn?

The long-end of the US Treasury market has often been described as a giant anaconda: it draws little attention as it sleeps most of the time, but the minute it wakes up, everybody around shakes. US 30-year bonds don’t bite, but their moves can be as poisonous as they basically determine millions of mortgage rates, as well as the price that governments and companies around the world pay for debt…

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Panoramic Weekly: Stars and Strikes

Global bond markets reacted sharply to Wednesday’s release of US Services data, which struck its best mark in 21 years: US 10-year yields spiked to 3.2%, the highest since 2011, while the dollar reversed a gloomy September to recover its August level. The usually less reactive 30-year Treasury yields surged, leading some investors such as M&G fund manager Richard Woolnough to argue that the mar…

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Just like 2008? Oil up, ECB tightening – all we’re missing is a credit accident

As we pass the 10-year anniversary of the Lehman default and we started thinking about what we were doing back in 2008 (desperately moving my savings out of certain banks was high on the list for me, whilst listening to MGMT and Los Campesinos; album of the year? TV On The Radio’s Dear Science), I went back to our blog, to see what the early warning signs were in the summer of that year.

It is …

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Watch Your Step: Cliff Edge risk in European High Yield

This has not been a vintage year for total returns in the European High Yield market: wider spreads have led to small capital losses, barely offset by a relatively low income of 3.2%, which has resulted in an anaemic total return of 0.22% year to date. Unexciting and dull? Yes, but only if one looks at the surface. The underlying trends are far more interesting – and relevant for investors.

Eve…

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BVTV: Stocks, bonds and Brazil’s election. Two sides of the same coin

One candidate has been stabbed and a former potential one is in prison. It is not a movie but the run up to a general election in the world’s eighth largest economy, and one that can set the mode for Emerging Markets afterwards. What are the polls telling us and how could bond and stock markets react? Watch M&G Fixed Income and Equity investment specialists Pilar Arroyo and Robert Secker discus…

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Panoramic Weekly – World to US, China: Let them eat trade

While the US and China continued their ongoing mutual trade threats and stand-offs, other nations’ assets rallied on hopes that the trade wars will open opportunity for third parties. Indeed, and as seen below, Asian, African and European exports to China are on the rise, while those from the US are increasing at a slower pace. The potential negative effects of the trade wars, as well as protra…

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