Monthly Archives:

January 2008

Housing market : Down down, deeper and down

The US housing market is getting worse and worse, and the UK looks set to follow it.

Yesterday saw the monthly update on the disaster that is the US housing market. Figures showed that the downturn is accelerating – the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index showed that the US house prices fell 7.7% in the year to the end of last November. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Index (which covers the …

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US economy: hard landing or soft landing?

A stream of poor economic data and some horrendous writedowns from the big banks have meant that risky assets have been walloped. The iTraxx crossover has shot out from 340 to 470 since the start of the year, and most of the world’s equity markets are down between 10 and 15%.

The recent release that I’d like to focus on is last week’s Philly Fed number (or the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelph…

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Happy new year?!

In August I posted a comment explaining why the US unemployment rate was to climb sharply (see here) and this is now happening. On Friday it was announced that the US unemployment rate jumped to 5.0% in December, up from 4.7% in November and ahead of expectations of 4.8%. Non-farm payrolls only rose by 18 thousand, the weakest figure since August 2003. Equity markets have slumped 2% on the news…

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