Monthly Archives:

April 2011

Has German growth peaked?

Just as the ECB has started tightening monetary policy, and just as the sovereign debt crisis appears to be coming to a head (don’t rule out a Greek restructuring over this long weekend although it remains an outside chance), it feels like we might have seen the best of German growth for this cycle.

The chart below (from UniCredit via Bloomberg) shows that cargo volumes at Frankfurt Airport hav…

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Where are we now? Some wise words from the IMF

Yesterday I attended a lunch with two senior IMF officials (hosted by Morgan Stanley), which came on the back of a number of excellent recent publications from the Fund (the speakers drew heavily from the Global Financial Stability Report, but it’s also worth having a look at the World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor).

Financial stability has generally improved over the last half year, but …

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Icelandic geysers say “No”

Last weekend the voters of Iceland said no to honouring claims made against their nation by the British and Dutch governments. These claims originate from the failure of “IceSave” saving accounts. Many depositors in these accounts were based in the UK and Holland. In the wake of the funding crisis the UK and Dutch governments  covered the losses of their respective citizens.

The Icelandics are …

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Japan and inflation expectations; and velocipedes

A couple of months ago I mentioned the Billion Prices Project – a daily CPI estimator which collects online prices to construct an index which we can compare with the official inflation releases. Sadly there is still no UK measure, but a month after the Japan earthquake and tsunami we can see what appears to be happening there. It looks like there was an intial inflationary shock, but prices h…

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