Monthly Archives:

June 2013

EM debt funds hit by record daily outflow – is this a tremor, or is this ‘The Big One’?

On Friday last week, EM debt funds saw a daily outflow of $1.27bn, which equalled the record set during the dark days of September 2011, a time when the Eurozone periphery and the ECB were particularly active bungee jumping down a precipice.   Outflows were even bigger on Monday this week, as EM debt funds were hit by $1.44bn in outflows.  The fact that Monday saw a daily record wasn’t much of …

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The M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey

Today we have launched the M&G YouGov Inflation Expectations Survey with the aim of assessing consumers’ expectations of inflation over the short and medium term. There has never been a better time to gauge the views of consumers, with interest rates at multi-century lows, central bankers waist-deep in the experiment of quantitative easing and politicians wavering on whether or not austerity is…

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Video: whilst the market gets excited about unemployment falling to 6.5%, the Fed’s attention is turning to falling inflation

I spent a couple of days in New York last week seeing economists and academics. The US Treasury market had just seen a significant sell-off, with 10 year yields rising from 1.63% at the start of May, to over 2.2%, with much of the damage done by Bernanke’s surprise talk of QE tapering during the Q&A following his address to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. US 30 year mortgage rates sold off…

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Time gentlemen please: the Fed prepares its exit from QE

The punch bowl of easy money that the US Federal Reserve has offered the market has been significant over the last 5 years: from low rates, to quantitative easing and benign regulation. The purpose of the party was to keep animal spirits high and prevent the gloomy cycle of recession from turning into depression. This generosity has been mirrored around the world in different guises, and so far…

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