M&G and bondvigilantes.com proudly present the scariest charts on the global economy. Some will make you laugh, some will make you cry. You will be amazed, you will be enchanted, you will be mystified, you will be amused. Of course, the following is not for the faint of heart. You have been warned.
- Companies are scared of risk
There has been a glut of corporate bond issuance since the financ… Read the article
One of the first rules of economics is that the equilibrium market price is generated by relative supply and demand. Limited supply or excess demand should result in an increase in price. One of the questions that has arisen in the post financial crisis world is why have wages not increased despite unemployment heading towards historically low levels? Given the improvement in data such as headl… Read the article
Part of the ABC of Latin American debt series
Brazil currently finds itself caught in a destructive trap between politics and economics.
On the political front, it is impossible to trade the daily noise and headline risk. The possible impeachment (45% probability as a guesstimate) of Rouseff would still be subject to various steps and legal challenges and could take a minimum of 6-9 months. Thr… Read the article
It has been quite an eventful year for emerging markets. The fall in oil and commodity prices, the prospect of higher interest rates in the US, the corruption scandal in Brazil and of course the growth slowdown in China have all contributed to increased uncertainty for the asset class. Naturally this uncertainty has impacted performance, weighing down on returns of both hard and local currency … Read the article
Two things last week that made me go “hmmm”. Firstly: having written a blog on the impact of El Nino on global inflation (here), Anthony was contacted by a company who then came in to see us to discuss their business. Using data from NASA and EU satellites, they produce earnings estimates for retailers, and forecast economic data. By counting cars in Big Box parking lots from space, they gen… Read the article
I just spent two weeks traveling Latin America around the IMF meetings in Lima. The region is navigating through various shocks: lower commodity prices, deteriorating balance sheets, growth and fiscal deterioration, an urgent need for structural reforms and significant political challenges. There is plenty to write about, so in the next couple of days I will post a series of blogs focused on th… Read the article
Recently Claudia and I were in Lima for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. Unsurprisingly (given the host nation and history of the meetings) the majority of sessions were on the developing world, in particular Latin America. Claudia will shortly be posting a series of more detailed blogs on the LATAM countries she visited, so I’ll focus more globally.
In aggregate, the IMF is predi… Read the article
First of all thanks to Business Insider. Every now and then we come into work to find hundreds of new Twitter followers have joined us overnight – this week it was thanks to BI listing us second in its round up of finance Tweeters. It’s a great list and pretty much everyone on it is worth a follow – I’d also recommend following Business Insider’s European markets editor Mike Bird (@Birdyword)… Read the article
It has been a rough ride for metal and mining giant BHP Billiton. Revenues have come under persistent pressure due to weakening commodity prices. Despite one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, promises made to shareholders have proven tough to keep.
With these commitments in mind the company turned to a nervous bond market earlier this week for some $6.44bn equivalent of hybrid deb… Read the article
Brazil has been facing the perfect storm since the re-election of Dilma Rousseff in October 2014 and asset prices in Latin America’s largest country have collapsed. Credit default swaps on Brazil 5-year sovereign debt in US dollar and hard-currency corporate bond spreads widened to as much as 545 bps and 938 bps respectively, as at the end of September 2015, which is higher than during the 2008… Read the article