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February 2016

How long until China reaches the floor of the recommended reserve adequacy range?

Much has been discussed on the topic of the optimal level of foreign exchange reserves. One of the common methodologies is the IMF’s ARA (Assessing Reserve Adequacy) metric, which essentially provides a range based on a country’s trade, broad monetary aggregates and external liabilities. How much weight should be given to each factor varies according to the economic structure of each country, i…

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A quantitative analysis of US recession probabilities

Guest contributor – Jean-Paul Jaegers CFA (Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)

Getting a sense of when recessions are about to happen is a near impossible task, as evidenced by official institutions that often fail to forecast recessions, and organisations like the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) that specialises in dating US business cycles, dating …

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Posted under US

Why doesn’t the ECB just buy oil?

It’s pretty clear that the pressure is on the European Central Bank (ECB) to come up with some form of policy response at their next Governing Council meeting in March. Take, for example, the 5-year, 5-year EUR inflation swap rate (i.e., the swap market’s estimate of where 5-year inflation rates might be in five years’ time), which has taken a nose dive to 1.5% (see chart below). This is remark…

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The new wedge in US inflation linked bonds

There has long been a well-known ‘wedge’ in the UK index linked bond market, since the bonds pay RPI and the Bank of England targets CPI. The wedge is the difference between these two price indices, and over the long term is thought to be approximately 1%. So over the long term, and with all sorts of caveats, RPI will be around 1% higher than CPI. The reasons for the wedge are essentially that …

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