Monthly Archives:

December 2016

Japan research trip: how will the Bank of Japan exit YCC?

Guest contributor – Jean-Paul Jaegers, CFA, CQF (Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)

Recently Jim Leaviss and I travelled to Tokyo to discuss local economic developments and Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy with economists and analysts based in Tokyo.

There was generally broad agreement that the potential path for Japanese government bond yields (JGBs) is asymmetric. …

Read the article

M&G Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz 2016

Here is the 10th annual Christmas Quiz.  20 questions, and the closing date for entries is midday on Friday 23rd December.  Please email your answers to us at bondteam@bondvigilantes.co.uk.  The winner will get glory, and can choose a charity from our approved list to which we will donate £100.  She or he will also get a copy of the new Bond Vigilantes book, called “Bond Vigilantes – Part II”. …

Read the article

Poor old ECB. Damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t.

The votes are in and it’s pretty unanimous. Despite Mario Draghi’s best efforts to persuade otherwise, the market is clear that today’s announcements are tantamount to tapering. Frankly anything less than an extension of Euro 80bn per month, irrespective of the duration, was likely to have been taken as such, with scant evidence of the inflation target being achieved during the forecast horizon…

Read the article

Shaky foundations: the European high yield construction sector

Guest contributor – Saul Casadio (Credit Analyst, M&G Investments)

While European High Yield has delivered a robust performance over the last two years, returning on average 4.9% per year, one part of the index has significantly lagged. Over the same period bonds issued by construction companies have returned an average annual return of -18.4%. The chart below shows that, out of seven issuers i…

Read the article

A whole new ball game. M&G 2017 economic and bond market outlook.

In our latest Panoramic Outlook, Jim Leaviss has a look at the forces that resulted in a tumultuous year for establishment politics, the ECB’s quantitative easing dilemma and the prospects for emerging markets in 2017. For the first time since the financial crisis, it appears that bond yields will come under sustained pressure as central banks gradually remove monetary stimulus. The impacts of …

Read the article

This week on Bond Vigilantes TV

In this week’s edition:

  1. OPEC meeting: impact on bond markets and inflation
  2. EUR vs USD spread differential widening: is value returning to European credit?
  3. A busy week ahead for Europe: market reaction post-Italian referendum and ECB meeting

Tune in for the charts and articles that are making headlines in bond markets.

 

Watch the video