With the UK’s vote for Brexit, Trump’s election, and the rise of Le Pen in France, it feels as if there is a backlash against the “Washington Consensus” and globalisation. Stephen King, economic adviser at HSBC has made this the topic of his latest book, “Grave New World: the end of globalisation, the return of history”.
In this short video, the latest in our series of interviews with authors … Watch the video
Join me, Laura Frost, on BVTV to discuss the political uncertainty surrounding the Trump presidency and Brazilian leader Michel Temer.
- We look at the effect on the bond and currency markets following a period of historically low volatility.
- The week saw European bumper issuance following the French election.
- And what to look out for this week, including the M&G Chelsea Flower Show.
… Watch the video
The last time the US had an unemployment rate below 5% and inflation expectations around 2%, the Fed funds rate was above 5% and had been aggressively hiked in the preceding period. Yellen’s Fed has been happy to let rates stay low amongst a tight and tightening labour market because wage growth has been lower than one would expect for a jobs market as healthy as this one. So, slow growth of wa… Read the article
The Eurovision song contest may be over for another year, but Europe’s capacity to surprise could well continue. Tune in to the latest edition of BVTV, where Anjulie Rusius joined me to discuss:
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- European economic surprises on the rise vs a slowing US
- Bank of England Super Thursday: Dovish message but attempts at a hawkish tone
- How much is the ECB tightening its corporate bond purchase programm…
European investment grade (IG) corporate bond spreads are now more than 40 basis points tighter than in early March 2016, before the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the expansion of its quantitative easing programme into the € IG corporate bond space. The technical tailwind provided by monthly bond purchases to the tune of around €7.5 billion from June onwards under the ECB’s corporate se… Read the article
There are a lot of misconceptions about defaults in emerging market (EM) debt. Too often, EM corporates are either considered ‘serial defaulters’ compared with their developed market peers, or seen as a single and homogeneous geography. In reality, default rates follow economic cycles, and having a regional, if not country, approach to default risk remains paramount due to different jurisdictio… Read the article
I have to be honest here. Even though we sponsor it, whenever I go to the Chelsea Flower Show I am reminded of bleak Sundays being dragged around garden centres as a child, hoping there is at least a pets section with some rabbits or something in it. Or some swings. Nevertheless, many people love flowers and plants.
So, in support of CASCAID, the UK asset management industry’s effort to rais… Read the article
EU officials are breathing their latest sigh of relief this morning, after French voters opted for centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron over far-right rival Marine Le Pen in yesterday’s second round presidential elections. Markets will now turn their attention to whether the incoming president can assemble a parliamentary majority without the benefit of an established party behind him.
Tune in to… Watch the video
Though the recent US Treasury report did not name any country as a currency manipulator (see more details on this in Mario’s blog), the monitoring list centres on larger economies that meet the following criteria:
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- The country has a significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States defined as more than USD 20 billion.
- The country has a current account surplus of at least 3% of GDP and …