After a significant policy error at the end of last year, Argentina has once again found itself in trouble – and back in the headlines –  in recent months, suffering from dented credibility and a fast depreciating peso. This morning on BVTV, I look at whether current levels now offer a buying opportunity.

Also this morning: what’s behind EM FX market weakness, and is it actually a US dollar story, rather than one of EM woes? And, with the oil price still climbing, are Russian credit spread levels too pessimistic?

Tune in for our latest thoughts!

President Trump has sent shockwaves through the global business community with his decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US. Will this protectionist move prove to be the catalyst for an eventual downturn in global economic growth, and what are the implications for equity and bond markets? Randeep Somel, deputy fund manager in M&G’s equities team, joined me this morning to discuss.

View the slides for this week’s episode

With the European economy growing at its fastest pace for a decade – and with Italy itself seeing an impressive return to growth – the uncertainty of an Italian election is something investors will be keeping a close eye on. The country goes to the polls on 4 March, although the outcome is unpredictable with many observers expecting a hung parliament and no outright winner.

To discuss the potential ramifications of all this I am joined in the studio by our resident Italians, Carlo Putti from our fixed interest team and Graziano Creperio from our multi-asset team. We will consider some of the key risks that investors need to keep in mind, as well as some of the potential investment opportunities that could present themselves both leading up to and after the vote.

Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Lebanon. The political risk spotlight has swung largely away from North Korea in recent days – despite President Trump’s visit to the region – and towards the Middle East. Fears of a wider regional confrontation have grown after an anti-corruption drive by Saudi Arabia’s young heir apparent, the firing of a missile from Yemen at Riyadh that the Saudis have blamed on Iran and the resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister, saying he was in fear of his life.

Meanwhile, the price of oil is nudging upwards, while bond and CDS markets have been pricing in additional risk quite aggressively. How does this combination of events impact the outlook for the emerging markets and what should investors be looking out for? Watch this week’s edition, where I share our thinking!

In today’s environment of solid, synchronised economic growth and low volatility, it is easy to believe such conditions are well set to continue. Did you know that we are now in the third longest bull run in the history of financial markets?

This week on BVTV I look back at the run-up to previous market bubbles and discuss what the Fed’s long-awaited balance sheet reduction announcement could mean for today’s investors. Tune in for the latest!

Oil has entered a bear market, despite OPEC’s ongoing supply reduction of 1.8m barrels/day, which started in January 2017 and is set to continue until March 2018. How are fixed income markets reacting? Also, Argentina has been in the news twice this week: successfully tapping the market for the $2.75bn sale of a 2117 bond, but failing to make MSCI’s upgrade from frontier to emerging markets. How does this link to the country’s economic performance? Finally, I’ll review whether there were any market moving updates from last week’s EU Summit in Brussels. Tune in for the latest edition of BVTV!

 

Tune in to our latest edition of BVTV, where this week I discuss:

1. The Fed hiked again! How did markets react?
2. The ride of EM currencies to date

 

Join us on Bond Vigilantes TV, where this week we discuss:

1. Which developed market currency is behaving like an EM?;
2. UK and US inflation data: fasten your seat belt (an interview with a special guest);
3. Economic insights from Trump’s inauguration day.

We will also discuss about upcoming events for the week in the economic calendar. Tune in!

 

This week on BVTV Nicolo Carpaneda discusses what’s behind the recent sell-off in government bond yields. He takes a look at some surprising updates from the US and asks the question: who is suffering one of the hardest recessions in history? Nicolo also previews the week ahead in the bond markets. Tune in to find out more. Happy Halloween!

 

I recently visited Hong Kong and Singapore to attend some conferences and meet clients in the region. While travelling, I put together a short video to share some of our views on Asian emerging economies and emerging markets in general.

As recently reported in Claudia’s Panoramic outlook here, following both the 2013 sell-off and the recent EMFX volatility experienced earlier this year, investors’ attitudes towards emerging markets have changed. Volatile capital flows, unsustainable growth models, a deterioration in current accounts, excessive credit growth and currency depreciation are key concerns for local and global investors. Some trends have become unsustainable and a rebalancing process has started. Emerging market economies will need to adjust to lower capital flows, with this adjustment taking place on various fronts over several years.

While adjustments take place, new opportunities present themselves. But not all emerging markets are equal. As emerging economies are on diverging paths, especially in Asia – some are deteriorating (eg China) while others are improving (eg Philippines or Sri Lanka) – asset allocation and stock selection will be key. Watch the video to find out our preferences.