I keep hearing the argument that the Fed needs to hike, so that if the US economy slows down again it will have room to cut rates once more. In other words it needs to get away from the zero bound so that the traditional monetary policy tool of rate cutting comes back into play in the future. In less cerebral moments I may have made this argument myself, but I’m struggling to remember why it …Read the article
Diane Coyle came in to talk about her study of the history of Gross Domestic Product a couple of weeks ago. You can watch a short interview we did with her here. We also offered you a chance to win a copy of her book, and we had over 60 correct answers to this question: he’s regarded as one of the creators of modern GDP statistics, but in 1934 he told Congress that “the welfare of a nation can …Read the article
Matt’s and James’s recent blogs outlined some of the issues markets face when rates go negative. This is obviously no longer just a theoretical debate, but has real investment implications. Why do investors accept sub-zero rates when they can hold cash ?
To recap using Swiss Francs for example, it makes sense for a saver from a purely economic view not to deposit a Swiss Franc note into a negat…Read the article
Thanks for another huge haul of entries to the Bond Vigilantes Christmas Quiz. Three people got full marks (20 points plus the bonus half mark for spotting the Goldhawk Road rail bridge), but the first out of the hat was Marton Huebler of Fidelity Worldwide Investment. Congratulations – we’ll be in touch to find out where you’d like us to make the charitable donation to. You’ll also get the …Read the article
Here is the 8th annual Christmas Quiz. 20 questions, and the closing date for entries is midday on Tuesday 23rd December. Please email your answers to us at firstname.lastname@example.org. The winner will get to choose a charity to which we will donate £200. He or she will also get a copy of “Anger is an Energy”, John Lydon’s new autobiography. Four runners up will also get a copy of the book. Good…Read the article
I’ve finally got round to reading Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise. It’s a brilliant analysis of why forecasts are often so poor, from the man who called every state correctly in the 2012 US presidential election. In short, predictions are often poor because they are too precise (asserting an absolute outcome rather than assigning probabilities to outcomes); there’s often a bias to overwe…Read the article
We have two exclusive places available for the Prudential RideLondon-Surrey 100 on Sunday 10 August 2014! Those of you who rode it in 2013 will know what an incredible day out it was. Starting in the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, this is a tough 100 mile cycle on closed roads through London and out to the famous climbs of the Surrey Alps before returning to the capital and finishing on the Mall…Read the article
Next month, Japan will raise its consumption tax from 5% to 8% as a step towards reducing the nation’s 200%+ debt to GDP ratio by moving towards a budget surplus in 2020. This may be the first of two hikes in the sales tax, with a further rise to 10% planned for October 2015. Prime Minister Abe has said that the second hike will be dependent on an economic recovery, rightly realising that onl…Read the article
Thanks for all the entries to the 2013 quiz. The winner is Adam Weidner who gets to choose where we send a £200 charity donation, and a copy of Morrissey’s autobiography. We’ll be in touch, and tweet the charity name on @bondvigilantes. The five runners up who win a Moz book are Jonathan Moore, Mark Nelson, Adrian Coates, Joshua Giersch and Richard Milne. Have a great 2014.
1. “The band the Bea…Read the article
It’s late this year. Sorry. Here’s the 7th annual Christmas Quiz. 20 questions, and the closing date for entries is midnight on Monday, 23 of December 2013. Please email your answers to us at email@example.com.
The winner will get to choose a charity to which we will donate £200. He or she will also get a copy of Morrissey’s autobiography, as will 5 runners up. It’s laugh out loud, you…Read the article