In its 2016 Annual Report entitled ‘making tomorrow a better place’, Carillion claimed they had ‘a good platform from which to develop the business in 2017’. Less than ten months after publication, Carillion went into compulsory liquidation, bypassing administration and the chance to continue trading. Assets will be realised and distributed to creditors, leaving little or no value remaining. Bu…Read the article
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times – to phrase it in a Dickensian way – for bonds of British automotive and aerospace components company GKN. After Melrose Industries, an investment firm specialised in turnarounds of manufacturing businesses, had made an unsolicited takeover bid for GKN on 8th January, GKNLN 3.375 05/12/32s have enjoyed capital gains of 1.7%, whereas the cash p…Read the article
Let’s be honest, 2017 won’t go down in history as the most exciting year for investment grade (IG) credit markets. IG credit spreads have moved more or less in one direction only: lower and lower. Still, there are valuable lessons to be learnt. Here are our key takeaways.
Positive mood swing in Europe drove EUR IG outperformance vs USD IG.
Back in early 2017 the logic was as follows: After the…Read the article
Guest contributor – Simon Duff (Credit Analyst, M&G Credit Analysis team)
Last week, International TV network operator Discovery Communications announced the US$15bn acquisition of Scripps Networks. Scripps owns TV networks focused on food, home and travel, so it fits with the factual or “non-scripted” focus of Discovery’s core networks (Discovery, TLC, Animal Planet). It also offers an oppor…Read the article
1. The ECB can act quickly when considering if a bank has reached the point of non-viability (PONV), and enacting a resolution plan. The speed with which regulators acted clearly took the market by surprise. At the same time, how the regulator determines a bank to be non-viable is still a grey area (considering the situation around some of the weaker Italian banks).
2. EU stress tests are not…Read the article
There are a lot of misconceptions about defaults in emerging market (EM) debt. Too often, EM corporates are either considered ‘serial defaulters’ compared with their developed market peers, or seen as a single and homogeneous geography. In reality, default rates follow economic cycles, and having a regional, if not country, approach to default risk remains paramount due to different jurisdictio…Read the article
It is hard to remember a time when there was so much disagreement around the outlook for corporate bond markets and risk assets. Some investors remain sceptical about the underlying strength of the rally and are uneasy at the pace at which secular stagnation concerns were washed away by the election of Donald Trump. Other investors, hesitant to hold cash or in negative yielding short-dated gove…Read the article
The German federal election in September still seems far away. However, for the first time in years, it appears possible that Angela Merkel could actually lose the election. Martin Schulz, Chancellor candidate and chairman of the Social Democratic Party, is having some early signs of success in the polls and is gaining momentum. As a result, investors in European (and UK ) debt might want to re…Read the article
Credit is the oil that lubricates the engine of an economy. For this reason, economists watch credit statistics closely, in order to assess the sustainability of growth. If credit isn’t growing, it suggests households and firms aren’t confident enough in their respective outlooks to borrow and invest. If credit grows too quickly, it could result in financial and macroeconomic instability – hist…Read the article
One of the prevailing features of the last few years has been the increasing prominence of discussions regarding market liquidity and the seemingly downward trajectory it has taken across fixed income markets. This had led many market participants to question the resulting implications for market stability and volatility.
It makes sense then to try and understand the driving factors behind thes…Read the article