Earlier this month, Germany celebrated the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, a pivotal moment in recent history that left the Soviet-led communist bloc on the brink of collapse. Whether the Hoff was single-handedly responsible or not, the reunification of communist East Germany with capitalist West Germany was a unique economic shock with a number of potential lessons. Changing…Read the article
In its latest semi-annual statement, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said it would slightly tighten monetary policy by increasing the slope of appreciation of the Singapore dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate’s (S$ NEER) policy band. This is the second increase this year, following one in April, and it confirms the broader monetary tightening recently seen in many Asian economies, …Read the article
Guest contributor – Elsa Dargent (M&G Financials Credit Research team)
Turkish banks have been subject to closer scrutiny over the past weeks as political events have triggered a confidence crisis with a run on the Lira (down by 38% year-to-date vs the dollar and by 26% since end-June, the banks’ last reporting date), a sizeable widening in Turkish govt yields, and an even sharper widening in b…Read the article
While emerging market bonds have notably underperformed in the year-to-date period, Fund Manager Claudia Calich believes the longer-term fundamental case for the asset class remains intact. The outlook for broad-based global economic growth is still in place, for example, which should help fiscal improvements and deleveraging in emerging countries. In this Bond Vigilantes video, Claudia also no…Watch the video
Towards the end of this year, a December spike in the cross currency basis for major currencies against the dollar grabbed the market’s attention. But what is cross currency basis (“the basis”)?
Consider a European company taking a one year loan from its domestic local bank to fund its US operations abroad. In order to hedge the currency risk, the company enters into a one year EUR/USD currenc…Read the article
After four calendar years of price appreciation, it looks like the US dollar will end 2017 deeply in negative territory. The dollar has fallen by almost 12% this year versus the euro and around 8% on a trade weighted basis. More surprisingly, the sharp depreciation of the dollar against the euro has occurred in a period when central bank policy has diverged, resulting in the yield differential …Read the article
Despite US rate hikes in December, March and another last week, the US dollar has depreciated back to pre-election levels. All of the Trumpflation dollar premium has disappeared. As the Trump dollar trade appears to have run out of steam, the Euro has however been climbing. Optimism around the Euro area growth comeback grew leading up to the ECB meeting earlier this month, with EUR/USD hittin…Read the article
According to recent reports, leading foreign football players in the English Premier League are looking to get paid in euro rather than sterling. Since the UK referendum result in June last year, sterling has fallen by 12% against the euro, so it is unsurprising to see that some players have questioned the denomination of their salaries. It is not the first time that global stars have asked to …Read the article
Though the recent US Treasury report did not name any country as a currency manipulator (see more details on this in Mario’s blog), the monitoring list centres on larger economies that meet the following criteria:
- The country has a significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States defined as more than USD 20 billion.
- The country has a current account surplus of at least 3% of GDP and …
Switzerland has made headlines of late as a potential candidate to be labelled a currency manipulator by the U.S. Treasury. For those countries at risk, a report recently published by the U.S Treasury sets out three key criteria the U.S. Treasury will use in order to assess whether a country is “pursuing unfair practices”. Firstly, the country would have a significant bilateral trade surplus wi…Read the article